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China, Georgia and Latvia have the highest weight of P2P lending to GDP

According to a study made by the analysts of Robocash Group, China, Georgia and Latvia have the highest weight of P2P lending on the domestic economic background. In particular, they have $18.5, $12.7 and $2.8 per every thousand of GDP, respectively. In the mid-term perspective, the countries are expected to keep leading positions in spite of either potential or already occurred regulatory changes.

Based on the volumes of P2P/Marketplace Consumer Lending reported by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance and GDP in 2017, the analysis included 38 countries in Europe, APAC and America. The results showed that P2P lending in China had $18.5 per every $1,000 of its GDP in 2017. That was the highest result among countries. The company’s analysts think that the country will keep the first place both globally and regionally in the near time. Despite the regulation introduced in 2018, which is expected to result in only 300 platforms able to remain on the market by the end of 2019, the demand for accessible loans among the population remains very high. At the same time, some slowdown in growth will allow other countries in the region to catch up with China. With an impressive dynamics of alternative finance over the past couple of years, the strengthening of P2P lending in India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar is beyond any doubt – Robocash.
At the same time, the latter can be attributed to the emerging markets of America too. In the light of the regional leader like the United States with $0.75 made by P2P lending in 2017 per every thousand dollars of GDP, Colombia, Chile and Peru seem modest. They had $0.1, $0.09 and $0.07, respectively. Though, with a large number of the underserved lacking access to finance, most Latin American countries seem to be a real underdog ready for a spurt.

In Europe, Georgia leads the way thanks to the solid volumes of the local P2P lending market coupled with a relatively small size of the population and insufficient access to traditional lenders. In 2017, the sector made $12.7 per every thousand dollars of the country’s GDP. Second place in Europe and the third in the world belongs to Latvia ($2.8). Located between Eastern and Western Europe and distinguished by facilitative regulation, Latvia became a centre of attraction of the European P2P platforms in 2017. Although the above is relevant for other Baltic countries too.

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Estonia ($1.7) and Lithuania ($1.0) took third and fourth places, respectively. As for the United Kingdom, the pioneer in P2P lending was the fifth because the segment made $0.7 per one thousand of GDP at that time. Moreover, it is unlikely that the country will weaken its position, but a sharp increase in the British P2P lending market is hardly probable. The recent data has proved it: in 2018, the volumes of P2P consumer lending grew by 4.01%, while the forecast for 2019 is 3.85%.
Commenting on the results, the analysts of Robocash Group noted:

 The absolute size of the market is not the only criterion to assess the development of P2P lending. Even if it is coupled with the level of GDP and income of people, special regulation, the longstanding history of the industry etc. the fundamental determinant is the ratio of supply and demand. That is why countries with smaller volumes may have a higher penetration of P2P lending in the economy. Also, the bottom line indicating the significance of the market against the economic background in 2017 was at the level of $10 of P2P loans per capita. Already today, the growing expansion of alternative lending has increased it up to $15 and will lift it further.

In order to measure a relative share of the P2P lending segment, the volume of P2P/Marketplace Consumer Lending was divided by annual nominal GDP of the country. For clarity, the results were multiplied by x1,000 used as a universal numerical indicator of the market development on the country’s economic background.

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Jung Min-seo

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