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Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Dedication of Merchants stories (COT) masking leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM forex futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure referred to as non-commercial.
The under abstract highlights futures positions and adjustments made by hedge funds throughout 24 main commodity futures up till final Tuesday, June 9. Urge for food for danger remained excessive that week, not least following the better-than-expected US job report on June 5. The S&P 500 rallied 4.2%, the greenback index misplaced 1.4% whereas bond yields jumped. The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed 1.5% with features seen throughout all sectors apart from treasured metals.
A blended week in commodities which regardless of broad price features didn’t yield a lot by way of main place adjustments. Crude oil continued to be purchased albeit at a a lot decreased tempo, gas merchandise have been bought on rising overhang of stocks whereas pure fuel held regular. Valuable metals remained out of favor with the gold and silver longs dropping additional whereas enthusiasm for copper attracted sturdy shopping for. Grains, led by corn, continued to be bought whereas the sugar place flipped again to lengthy. Thereby changing into weak to revenue taking after the rally’s major engine, crude oil, started wanting exhausted.
Vitality
Shopping for of crude oil slowed regardless of one other week of sturdy features for each WTI and Brent crude oil. WTI noticed the smallest quantity of shopping for on this cycle with bullish bets near a two-year excessive. Elevated ranges of gas merchandise within the U.S. drove a discount within the gasoline (RBOB) net-long to a three-year low and an increase within the distillate (ULSD) brief to a three-month excessive.
Metals
Gold promoting prolonged into a 3rd week with the web lengthy falling by 9k tons to 127ok tons, a one-year low and down 55% for the reason that February peak. Copper in the meantime and as anticipated attracted extra shopping for following the technical break above $2.50/lb, a key stage of support-turned-resistance since 2017. The close to five-fold bounce took the net-long to 14ok tons, a 15-month excessive.
Agriculture
Forward of Thursday’s world provide and demand outlook report from the US Division of Agriculture, the corn brief had prolonged to 297ok tons, a 13-month excessive and largest seasonal brief in at the least 20 years. This regardless of a continued regular restoration within the price. The wheat brief jumped by 88% forward of the WASDE report which pinned world stocks subsequent 12 months at a file excessive. The soybeans lengthy in the meantime greater than doubled on elevated Chinese language shopping for.
The mushy sector was blended with the oil-related rally in sugar helped flip the place again to a web lengthy whereas the Arabica espresso brief greater than doubled in response the deteriorating technical outlook.
For a take a look at all of at present’s financial occasions, try our financial calendar.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Technique at Saxo Bank.
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