American Express – Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Tottenham Hotspur (Jan. 31)

Brighton vs. Spurs Odds

Odds updated as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings.

Tottenham looks to rebound from a midweek loss at home to Liverpool when they take on bottom-of-the-table side Brighton.

The Seagulls’ 2020-21 campaign has not gone according to plan. Brighton is currently in a relegation battle, sitting only four points from safety. They also seem to be addicted to drawing with their opponents as they already have nine draws in their first 20 matches, including a 0-0 draw with Fulham last time out on Wednesday. Brighton is a much better team than the results have shown this year and is due for some positive regression in the second half of the season. Will they see it on Sunday against Tottenham?

Spurs looked terrible on Thursday against Liverpool. They were completely dominated at both ends of the pitch in a 3-1 beat down. To make matters worse, star striker Harry Kane went down with an ankle injury and is doubtful to play on Sunday. Tottenham is now sitting in sixth place and is four points off the top four. Another loss on Sunday could be detrimental to their hopes of playing in the Champions League next season.

Brighton

The Seagulls may be the most underrated club in all of Europe. Brighton currently sits with a -7 goal differential, but their expected goal differential is +3.24, which is 10th-best in the Premier League. If you want a snapshot of how their season is going, their match against Fulham on Wednesday couldn’t have painted a better picture.

To say that Brighton is due for a win at home would be an understatement. After the match against Fulham, Brighton now has a per match expected goal differential of +0.95, but has yet to win a match at the American Express Stadium. In fact, Brighton should have 20.44 points based on understat.com’s xPoints metric, while they’ve only managed six points so far this season.

Tottenham beat Brighton 2-1 earlier in the year, but a lot of their production in that game was because of Kane. He scored a penalty and created another big chance, which accounted for 1.36 of Spurs’ 2.00 xG in the match. So, without Kane, Brighton has a tremendous shot at getting all three points.

Spurs

Tottenham’s regression was always going to happen at some point. In December, they had a chance to go to the top of the league and now they’re sitting in sixth, with only two wins in their last eight matches. The main issue during those eight matches has been their defense, which is allowing 1.42 xG per match, when they were only allowing 1.10 xG through their first 11 matches.

The loss of Kane is massive for Tottenham because he is the go-to guy up front. Kane has been involved in 22 of Spurs’ 34 goals and has a 0.58 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, which is by far the best on the team. Even on Thursday when Kane was forced off at the beginning of the second half, Tottenham created only one shot and 0.04 xG without him on the pitch. So I think Tottenham is going to struggle to create scoring opportunities with Kane on the sidelines.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Brighton is extremely overdue for all three points at the American Express Stadium. I think Sunday’s match against a Harry Kane-less Tottenham squad is a perfect opportunity for the Seagulls to get their first home win of the season.

I am going to back Brighton Draw no Bet at +128 (DraftKings) and would play it up to +110.

Pick: Brighton Draw no Bet (+128)