American Express Stock – Tottenham Hotspur vs. West Bromwich Albion (Feb. 7)
Spurs vs. West Brom Odds
|West Brom Odds||+600|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 7 a.m. ET|
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Clubs struggling mightily will do battle bright and early Sunday when faltering Tottenham Hotspur hosts relegation-favorite West Bromwich Albion.
Spurs continued their slide down the table during midweek action when it suffered a 1-0 loss to Chelsea at American Express Community Stadium. The defeat marked the second consecutive shutout the club has endured since scoring a goal in a 3-1 setback against Liverpool.
On the other side, West Brom has endured a season-long nightmare that seemingly will result in a trip to the Championship at season’s end. The Baggies, winless of 11 of their last 12 league affairs, suffered a devastating 2-1 loss to last-place Sheffield United last time out.
Let’s take a look at these sides and find some value plays in this contest.
Manager Jose Mourinho and his group could not be in a worse position than they are right now. Spurs, losers of three on the bounce, are now in ninth place on 33 points, with European dreams slowly fading away.
Adding even more insult to things is the fact the club will still be without star Harry Kane, who picked up knocks to both ankles in the Liverpool defeat.
Statistically, Spurs look like a mid-table club in the advanced metrics.
The club sits 27.4 expected goals and 25.7 expected goals against, resulting in a mediocre +1.7 xGDiff and flat +0.08 xGDiff/90 minutes.
At this point in the season, you almost have to feel slightly bad for the Baggies. Facing a mandatory three-point effort against Sheffield United, West Brom laid another clunker in that crushing defeat at Bramall Lane.
Now, the Baggies are just one point from the bottom and will need a miracle to get clear of the drop zone during the second half of their campaign. They’re now 12 points from safety and need a positive result against Spurs to create any kind of momentum.
When comparing stats with Spurs, West Brom’s numbers are the worst in the entire league. Needless to say, no one should be surprised about that fact.
The Baggies are on a paltry 15.1 expected goals and brutal 40.5 expected goals against that result in a -25.4 xGDiff and -1.16 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This match could really go either way, largely due to the fact we have no idea which Spurs team is going to show up.
With that in mind, I am going to avoid backing a side and play the total to go over the number as my top angle. There have been at least three goals in West Brom’s last seven league matches, which has me confident in this pick.
I will also play both teams to score at a fair price. Spurs have given up at least one goal in six consecutive games across all competitions, and I can’t see them recording a clean sheet even against someone like West Brom.
Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-124) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-108)