The stock of Apple (NAS:AAPL, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $130.15 per share and the market cap of $2171.9 billion, Apple stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Apple is shown in the chart below.
Because Apple is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 12.8% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 8.69% annually over the next three to five years.
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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Apple has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.57, which is worse than 72% of the companies in Hardware industry. The overall financial strength of Apple is 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Apple is fair. This is the debt and cash of Apple over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Apple has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $325.4 billion and earnings of $4.455 a share. Its operating margin is 27.32%, which ranks better than 96% of the companies in Hardware industry. Overall, the profitability of Apple is ranked 8 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Apple over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company’s stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Apple is 12.8%, which ranks better than 82% of the companies in Hardware industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 8.2%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Hardware industry.
One can also evaluate a company’s profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Apple’s ROIC is 29.77 while its WACC came in at 8.85. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Apple is shown below:
Overall, the stock of Apple (NAS:AAPL, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Hardware industry. To learn more about Apple stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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