Today we’ll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of AstraZeneca PLC (LON:(AZN)) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they’re fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for AstraZeneca
Crunching the numbers
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$6.63b||US$7.92b||US$10.0b||US$11.5b||US$12.5b||US$13.3b||US$13.9b||US$14.4b||US$14.7b||US$15.1b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x6||Analyst x5||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Est @ 5.92%||Est @ 4.44%||Est @ 3.41%||Est @ 2.69%||Est @ 2.18%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%||US$6.3k||US$7.1k||US$8.4k||US$9.1k||US$9.4k||US$9.4k||US$9.3k||US$9.0k||US$8.8k||US$8.4k|
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$85b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$15b× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (6.0%– 1.0%) = US$307b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$307b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= US$172b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$257b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£77.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at AstraZeneca as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.831. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For AstraZeneca, we’ve put together three relevant aspects you should further research:
- Risks: For instance, we’ve identified 3 warning signs for AstraZeneca (1 doesn’t sit too well with us) you should be aware of.
- Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market’s sentiment for (AZN)‘s future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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