Measuring from the Dec. 17, 2017 all-time excessive, theworth has been correcting for 819 days. The lower has been very substantial, with the value having misplaced 63% of its worth. A really comparable motion occurred to the Nasdaq index throughout the 2000 dot-com bubble.
Effectively-known dealer @CryptoCapo_ made a comparability of the present BTC worth motion and that of the Nasdaq Composite throughout the 2000 dot-com bubble, whereas additionally outlining the ”emotional phases of a market cycle.” Based on him, it’s doable that the March 13 backside was the ultimate low after the ”disbelief” excessive of June, and the value will proceed to maneuver upward afterward.
That is the one chart that ”scares me”
I’ll don’t have any drawback changing into bullish if the bearish evaluation is validated. https://t.co/pXecHQN8Ng pic.twitter.com/Q5ufQdcUgv
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) April 6, 2020
Proper after the March 13 lower, we wrote an article evaluating the 2 crashes. For the reason that worth has elevated significantly since, it looks like an excellent time to revisit our prediction and see how the precise motion compares to the anticipated one.
The Nasdaq index reached a excessive of $5,132 in March 2000. Afterward, it decreased quickly, dropping 78.59% of its worth over the following 944 days, culminating with a low of $1,108 in October 2002.
Afterward, the value started an upward transfer. In October 2007, it reached a excessive of $2,871, coinciding with the 0.5 Fib stage of the whole earlier lower. Based on the tweet, it’s doable that this was the ”disbelief” excessive. The following lower took the value to its closing low of $1,265, which was reached in March 2009. The value has been rising ever since.
It took 2,344 days for the value to maneuver from the primary to the second bottoms. As well as, the month-to-month RSI generated hidden bullish divergence.
The Bitcoin worth reached a excessive of $19,667 on Dec. 17, 2017. On the time of writing, this nonetheless stays the all-time excessive. Afterward, the value started to lower, dropping 83% of its worth over the following 364 days. This brought on it to succeed in a low of $3,122 in December 2018.
The value started to extend afterward, reaching a excessive of $13,764 in June 2019, proper on the 0.5 Fib stage of the whole earlier lower. This motion is equivalent to that of the Nasdaq Composite index. The following lower brought on the value to succeed in a low of $3,850 on March 11.
The time interval between the 2 lows gives the principal distinction between these two actions. The time between these two lows was 455 days within the Bitcoin motion, which is about 1.Three occasions increased than the time required for the value to drop from the all-time excessive to the primary low, which was 364 days. On the contrary, this ratio was greater than 2.5 within the Nasdaq motion, nearly twice larger.
As well as, the weekly RSI didn’t generate straight nor hidden bullish divergence.
We acknowledged in our earlier article, ”To ensure that this low to be the ‘disbelief’ one, it needs to be a better low in relation to that reached in December 2018. A worth shut under $3,200 would invalidate this risk.”
This nonetheless stays true, permitting for the likelihood that the present BTC motion will mirror that of the Nasdaq after 2009, at the least to a sure diploma.
To conclude, the continuing BTC lower because the December 2017 all-time excessive shares quite a few similarities with that of the Nasdaq Composite index after the dot-com bubble burst. To ensure that the similarities to stay legitimate, the BTC worth has to remain above $4,000.