It is easy to see why non-Coke aligned investors thought the company was being stolen from beneath them despite the fact that the deal had the unanimous support of the Coca-Cola Amatil board.
Since then Coca-Cola Amatil’s share price has not only improved but has risen beyond the offer price.
Thus the offer from Coke in Europe looks not just opportunistic but poorly timed.
Had that price been proposed earlier in the year (when the shares were at $8) it may have succeeded. But given the parent, The Coca-Cola Company in Atlanta, controls all its bottlers, it probably doesn’t subscribe to the view that it needs to offer a regular control premium.
The trouble is that, given it doesn’t get to vote its shareholding, it is up to minority shareholders to decide the takeover’s success.
Based on a positive-ish earnings update last week, the share price has taken another leg up and at Monday’s price of $13.14 there will be significant pressure on institutional shareholders to reject the bid.
If they do they will be rolling a dice on whether Coke Europe will come back with a higher offer.
Citi’s analyst Craig Woolford now sees a 35 per cent chance of a sweetener being added to the offer and a 50 per cent chance the offer will proceed at $12.75.
It took 18 months of haggling with the Coca-Cola Amatil board to come up with the $12.75 offer. In March 2019 Coke Europe started the process with an offer of $10 a share when the stock was trading around $8.50.
Coke Europe could walk away from the $12.75 per share deal – or stump another 40 to 50 cents which analysts reckon would get it over the line.
Citi’s analyst Craig Woolford now sees a 35 per cent chance of a sweetener being added to the offer and a 50 per cent chance the offer will proceed at $12.75.
It rates the chances of no deal at 15 per cent – in which case it believes the Coca-Cola Amatil share price will fall to $11.
Macquarie sees ‘upside risk’ to the $12.75 share offer – which means it thinks there is a possibility the bid price will be lifted. Its analyst Ross Curran says the earnings update raises the risk that shareholders may vote against the scheme if the price is not improved.
This is not a company with a long-term growth trajectory. It has been attempting to replace falling sales from carbonated sugary soft drinks with other healthier-product sales and sugar lite options (plus some alcoholic beverages) for 10 years or more.
Despite some success it’s hard to fight the reality that its mainstay is still fizzy sugary drinks. Having said that, 2020 was a particularly poor year for Coca-Cola Amatil.
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While overall volumes were still down in the fourth quarter the trend was improving from earlier COVID affected quarters. In Australia and New Zealand volumes started growing in the fourth quarter – albeit only marginally in Australia.
Analysts may see the better performance from NZ as a proxy for what volumes could look like in other territories given volumes across the ditch were hit less by lockdowns.
Overall, Coca-Cola Amatil volumes continue to be dragged down by Indonesia which is still battling with COVID and its economic consequences.
The company, under chief executive Alison Watkins, has made a decent fist of improving the cost base over the past five years. But that said the company has still been something of a chronic underperformer.
So minority investors in Coca-Cola Amatil have a lot at stake. Either accept the offer on the table, take a punt that the offer will be improved or risk the offer disappearing and the share price falling.
Given the stock is trading above the offer price, the market appears to be betting the offer will be raised.
Spare a thought for the uncomfortable position in which Coca-Cola Amatil directors find themselves- they are, in effect, now recommending an offer that is at a discount to the share price.
Elizabeth Knight comments on companies, markets and the economy.
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