DKNG Stock – DraftKings & FanDuel LPL/LCK Esports DFS Rundown – August 5, 2021 – FantasyCruncher.com DFS Articles & Insights
We have reached the final week of the LPL and the final two weeks of the LCK. In the LPL, the top ten playoff teams have been decided, however, this week will figure out the seeding. LOL Pro Caster, Munchables, did a great job breaking down the seeding on Twitter, so I am just going to link that here instead of trying to explain it all myself. More importantly, what this means is teams locked into playoff spots still have a lot to play for in this final week.
In the LPL we get ThunderTalk against Ultra Prime, EDG against LNG, and Rare Atom against IG. Starting with ThunderTalk and Ultra Prime, these teams are a combined 6-22 on the year though Ultra Prime has easily been the better team, putting up a 11-25 games record, compared to ThunderTalks 6-22. Ultra Prime can also boast a recent upset of TES, while ThunderTalk’s only recent wins were against V5 and Rogue Warriors. Funny thing here is, even though Ultra Prime’s record is poor, their stats aren’t horrible. Xiaocaobao in mid lane has 57 or more fantasy points in six of his last seven matches, while Smlz has put up at least 67 in two of his last three losses. There are a ton of flaws with this UP team, but the LPL has so much talent that if you aren’t performing at the highest level, you are going to be surpassed. I can see this UP team being one to watch in the future and while on paper this is just two “bad” teams against each other, Ultra Prime has a large upper hand in each lane.
EDG against LNG is a game that will have a lot of seeding ramifications and while LNG started the year 7-0, they have fallen back to sixth at just 10-5. The schedule for LNG over the last eight matches hasn’t been easy, but in such a competitive league you need to beat the teams that are comparable to you, like Rare Atom and Team WE. The last seven matches that LNG has played has went to three games, and this can be a bit of a blessing and a curse. EDG opens as a -287 favorite here and LNG’s most redeeming factor on this slate is they are the cheapest at a lot of positions. EDG’s last ten matches have only went two games. They either won in two games (seven times) or were swept (three times). Those sweeps all came to playoff teams – TES, RNG, and WE. EDG still is the LPL’s most elite team this split with a 76% win percentage. LNG is a team that could push EDG here, but their form has been pretty poor. While EDG also has some recent losses, they were playing around with their jungler position a little bit too but have since reverted to what they had success with early in the year. For me, an LNG win needs to come from a big Tarzan advantage in the jungle – he has a CS/M advantage here, though JieJie has been way better at entering team fights. Despite the strong year by LNG here, EDG holds a statistical edge in almost all lanes and four EDG starters ranking in the top ten in the league for highest KDA. All this being said, the price on EDG makes them very hard to play, with their mid lane coming in at $8,000 and bot at $8,200.
Rare Atom and IG round out the LPL and if it wasn’t for Rare Atom being affordable here, this might be a matchup I just generally would have avoided. FoFo and Leyan have hit a few ceiling games this year, but in the end Rare Atom stacks haven’t been in the winning formula much. iBoy hasn’t broken 75 fantasy points since July third and has only crossed 80 fantasy points four times all year. This just isn’t a lot for your main carry at a position that can break 85-90 in a sweep with ease. IG on the other hand is a team of disappointment this year that sees the careers of TheShy and Rookie possibily coming to an end. This is a narrative we can play here as this could be the last competitive League we see from them, but after IG upset TES, they have since lost their last two matches in sweeps to Team WE and BLG. IG’s two biggest wins on the year were against FPX and TES both in sweeps, but besides that it has been inconsistent play. For that reason IG will always be a tournament dart at low percentages, but their 5-9 (12-19) record shows who they really have been. We get some Rare Atom discounts here, but the discounts come from their lack of consistent upside. The RA top lane has outscored their bot lane consistently this season.
In the LCK we still have about four matches left from each team, so while the top five in playoffs are mostly decided, the six spot could vary. Starting with Damwon and Fredit Brion – the tune is the same in almost all writeups here. Damwon has taken some losses this season, but they are still an elite team with elite stats in this league. Fredit Brion have been giant slayers this year, with just five wins on the season, four have come against teams who will be in the playoffs. This makes for a frustrating dilemma – Fredit is not a good team based around stats, but they have pulled some upsets. For me, I hope people run with that, because with playoffs out of reach for Fredit, I think Damwon cruises here. Despite being the current four seed at 9-6, Damwon has a 62% win percentage in their games, which is actually second best in the league. Showmaker and Canyon are the two I like to build around here, as they both sit in the top ten for KDA with Showmaker third at 5.46.
Hanwha is the other incredibly disappointing on this split as they are just 6-9 and 15-22 on the year and take on the surprise team of the split in Liiv Sandbox. Liiv is actually just a -160 favorite so we get some discounts here in what feels like it should be a wider margain. Hanwha was able to grab one game from Nongshim in their last match, but outside of Deft and Chovy, this is a team that has really underwhelmed. Willer has been starting in the jungle as of late as they are trying to get the 18-year-old some experience on the larger stage. Prince and FATE continue to be the forces for LSB here, as they both have KDA’s over 4.00. Prince also currently ranks second in the LCK for Gold per minute and third for Creep Score per minute. Liiv is appealing here as Croco and Effort are both averaging 69% or high kill participation, with no one on the team falling under 63%. If we get team fights out of LSB, the involvement is going to rack up more assists for us. The top lane has been where HLE has really struggled this year, as whether it is Morgan or DuDu, both are averaging near three deaths per game.
|High||Scout (12k / 105.840) (13.8k / 105.840)||Flandre (6.8k / 55.76) (8.1k / 55.76)||JieJie (7.6k / 56.48) (8.8k / 56.48)||Scout (8k / 70.56) (9.2k / 70.56)||Viper (8.2k / 60.87) (10.1k / 60.87)||Meiko (5.8k / 43.49) (7.3k / 43.49)||EDward Gaming (5.8k / 48.26) (7.8k / 48.26)|
|JieJie (11.4k / 84.720) (13.2k / 84.720)||Khan (6.6k / 69.87) (8.2k / 69.87)||Canyon (7.2k / 78.09) (8.7k / 78.09)||ShowMaker (7.6k / 83.01) (10.2k / 83.01)||Ghost (7.8k / 72.01) (9.1k / 72.01)||ShiauC (5.4k / 49.47) (7k / 49.47)||DWG Kia (5.6k / 53.26) ( / 53.26)|
|Smlz (11.4k / 93.120) (14.7k / 93.120)||FoFo (7.4k / 60.22) (10k / 60.22)||Smlz (7.6k / 62.08) (9.8k / 62.08)||Rare Atom (5.4k / 45.14) (7.7k / 45.14)|
|ShowMaker (11.4k / 124.515) (15.3k / 124.515)|
|FoFo (11.1k / 90.330) (15k / 90.330)|
|Medium||Canyon (10.8k / 117.135) (13.05k / 117.135)||Cube (6.4k / 56.09) (8k / 56.09)||H4cker (7k / 56.36) (8.1k / 56.36)||FATE (7.2k / 61.36) (8.7k / 61.36)||Prince (7.2k / 62.69) (9.9k / 62.69)||BeryL (5.2k / 59.51) (7.4k / 59.51)||Ultra Prime (5.2k / 43.18) (7.5k / 43.18)|
|H4cker (10.5k / 84.540) (12.15k / 84.540)||Summit (6.2k / 42.91) (7.9k / 42.91)||Leyan (6.8k / 51.97) (8.6k / 51.97)||Liiv SANDBOX (5k / 43.04) (7.6k / 43.04)|
|xiaocaobao (10.2k / 101.385) (12k / 101.385)|
|Low||Croco (9.6k / 67.350) (12.45k / 67.350)||zs (5.8k / 33.84) (7.8k / 33.84)||Croco (6.4k / 44.90) (8.3k / 44.90)||xiaocaobao (6.8k / 67.59) (8k / 67.59)||Light (6.2k / 43.11) (9.4k / 43.11)||Effort (4.8k / 43.48) (7.1k / 43.48)|