Dow Jones – Put up Election Retail Positioning Evaluation

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Gold, Dealer Positioning – Speaking Factors

• How are retail merchants positioned in markets after the US election?
• S&P 500 may be in danger to falling, will Dow and gold costs observe?
• AUD/USD, NZD/USD, GBP additionally analyzed within the webinar recording

On this week’s webinar on IG Consumer Sentiment (IGCS), I mentioned the outlook for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and gold costs within the aftermath of the US presidential election. IGCS is a contrarian indicator. For a deeper dive into what this implies and for basic evaluation, take a look at the recording of the session above the place I additionally outlined the highway forward for AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GBP/USD.

S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook – Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 43% of retail merchants are internet lengthy the S&P 500. Draw back publicity has decreased by 2.07% and 10% over a each day and weekly foundation respectively. Current adjustments in sentiment warn that the present price development may quickly reverse decrease regardless of the very fact merchants stay internet quick.

S&P 500 Technical Evaluation

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 may very well be in danger to turning decrease following adverse RSI divergence. This exhibits that upside momentum is fading as costs take a look at the higher zone of consolidation between 3541 and 3587. Costs struggled to carry a climb above it on Monday, abandoning a big higher wick. A reversal from right here may place the concentrate on the decrease zone of consolidation between 3198 and 3260.

S&P 500 Futures – Day by day Chart

S&P 500 Chart Created in Buying and selling View

Dow Jones Sentiment Outlook – Bullish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 35% of retail buyers are internet lengthy the Dow Jones. Upside publicity has decreased by 1.69% and 20% over a each day and weekly foundation respectively. The mixture of present sentiment and up to date adjustments affords a stronger bullish contrarian buying and selling bias.

Dow Jones Technical Evaluation

The Dow Jones is testing all-time highs achieved earlier this 12 months, making for a zone of resistance between 29263 and 29523. Costs left behind a big higher wick on Monday, reinforcing this technical barrier. Damaging RSI divergence warns that upside momentum is fading. A flip decrease from right here may open the door to revisiting the 25881 – 26407 help zone.

Dow Jones Futures – Day by day Chart

Dow Jones Chart Created in Buying and selling View

Gold Sentiment Outlook – Impartial

The IGCS gauge implies that about 83% of retail merchants are internet lengthy gold. Draw back publicity has elevated by 26.8% over a each day foundation whereas declining 14.29% over a weekly interval. The mixture of present sentiment and up to date adjustments affords a additional combinedbuying and selling bias.

Gold Technical Evaluation

Following heavy losses on Monday, gold costs paused losses on the essential 1848 – 1863 help zone. This has additionally positioned the bearish ‘Death Cross’ again in play on the each day chart beneath. Optimistic RSI divergence exhibits that draw back momentum is fading within the yellow metallic. This might precede a flip greater in direction of the 20-day and 50-day Easy Shifting Averages.

XAU/USD – Day by day Chart

Gold Chart Created in Buying and selling View

*IG Consumer Sentiment Charts and Positioning Information Used from November 10th Report

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Forex Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the feedback part beneath or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter