Dow Today – LIVE MARKETS 2022 Nasdaq Composite: Year of the roadrunner or the coyote?

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2022 NASDAQ COMPOSITE: YEAR OF THE ROADRUNNER OR THE COYOTE? (0900 EST/1400 GMT)

The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) accomplished a rare feat last year. That is, its entire 2021 trading range was above its upper yearly Bollinger Band (BB):

Bollinger Bands (BB) are envelopes, or trading bands, plotted at a level of standard deviation above and below a simple moving average of price. Given that the bands are based on standard deviation, they adjust to swings in volatility. The bands can help answer the question of whether price is high or low on a relative basis.

Using Refinitiv data, the IXIC has ended a year above its upper yearly BB – or more than two standard deviations above its 20-year moving average – ten times, or about 43% of the time. This includes a current nine-year streak from 2013 to 2021.

However, besides the building streak, what was especially unique about last year is that the Composite’s 12,397.05 low was above its upper yearly BB, which ended the year at 12,274.516. This is the first time the IXIC has managed this in 23 years of data, which makes it just over 4% of the time.

When looking at the greater histories of the Dow (.DJI) (107 years of data), and S&P 500 (.SPX) (75 years of data), these indexes’ entire yearly ranges have only been above their upper yearly BB once (0.9% of the time), and twice (2.7% of the time), making it a rare event.

The Composite may yet accomplish this feat again in 2022, but neither the Dow or SPX has ever managed do it two-straight years.

It is just the start of 2022, and the market’s exact path is highly uncertain. However, given that the IXIC’s upper yearly BB currently resides at 14,173, or nearly 10% below Tuesday’s close, and that it will adjust for volatility, potential exists for some especially wild action throughout this year, whether it be a big upside run, a cliff dive, or both.

(Terence Gabriel)

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Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own

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