Dow Today – LIVE MARKETS A film-noir Friday
- U.S. indexes end sharply lower; banks, small caps take big hits
- All major S&P 500 sectors fall: energy down most
- Dollar down; gold up; crude, bitcoin collapse
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~1.50%
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A FILM-NOIR FRIDAY (1305 EST/1805 GMT)
Darkness came over global stocks on Friday amid concerns about a new and possibly vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant. With this, travel, bank and commodity-linked stocks bore the brunt of the selloff.
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All major S&P 500 (.SPX) sectors fell. Energy (.SPNY) was the weakest group falling 4%. This as NYMEX Crude Futures , down more than 12%, took their biggest hit since April 2020.
And on this Black Friday, pessimism won out among retail stocks. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT.P) finished off 2.4%.
That said, it wasn’t all totally grim. Some stocks that benefit from people working from, or staying at, home, outperformed. read more
Regarding Friday’s action, Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXS Investments said, “We see today’s activity and what will likely spill over into next week as a buying opportunity in the sense that it is another wrinkle here with the South African variant but while the immediate term market slides could be significant and continue into early December, bigger picture this will be a buying opportunity to move in there on this dip.”
Here is Friday’s closing snapshot:
(Terence Gabriel, Chuck Mikolajczak)
EUROPE: WORST SESSION SINCE JUNE 2020 (1153 EST/1653 GMT)
European stocks got their worst beating since June 2020 with a 3.7% fall and the extent of the market turmoil had many similarities with the March 2020 COVID-19 crash.
Travel and leisure stocks plunged a whopping 8.7%, a performance unmatched since March 2020 with airlines stocks being dumped in a dramatic fashion.
Many other countries are already putting in place travel restrictions amid fears the new variant might be to some degree vaccine resistant.
With a new wave of social restrictions already being implemented across Europe, investors are taking no chances.
The travel and leisure index is now down 6.6% since the beginning of the year and has lost nearly 20% this month alone.
It’s obviously not a good time to be building planes and Airbus has fallen 11%.
Banks, which have become a barometer of the pandemic crisis also had an excruciating day, losing 6.7%, their worst session since June 2020.
But the pain was well spread and cyclical stocks across other sectors such as car makers, miners, energy, insurance, retail, construction and industrials fell between 4% and 6%.
There were little safe places to hide and even pharma, the best performing sector today, lost 1.2%.
BEARS POKE THEIR HEADS UP (1137 EST/1637 GMT)
The percentage of investors with a bearish short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market has risen to its highest level since early October in the latest American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey (AAII). With this, both bullish and neutral sentiment declined.
With these changes, the bull-bear spread fell to -1.90 from +11.6 last week read more :
U.S. ON THE MAT (1056 EST/1556 GMT)
U.S. stocks are being tossed to the floor on Black Friday, triggered by the discovery of a new and possibly vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant.
Not surprisingly, given renewed coronavirus concerns, more economically sensitive groups and “re-opening plays” are being hit especially hard, while defensive groups see less severe declines.
Banks (.SPXBK) and small caps (.RUT) are down more than 4%. Energy (.SPNY) is sliding nearly 6%, while NYMEX crude futures are collapsing more than 11%.
The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield has plunged to the 1.50% area.
Healthcare (.SPXHC) is a bright spot as the only major S&P 500 (.SPX) sector up on the day, though just fractionally.
This chart shows action in a composite of five major re-opening plays vs a composite of five major stay-at-home stocks :
As the re-opening group is hit relatively harder vs stay-at-home plays, the ratio is on track for its biggest daily percentage decline in more than a year.
Meanwhile, retail stocks are also down sharply on this Black Friday. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (.XRT.P) is off more than 3%.
Here is where markets stand in mid-morning trading:
U.S. STOCKS POISED TO PLUNGE (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
U.S. equity index futures are sliding on Friday, with travel, bank and commodity-linked stocks bearing the brunt of the selloff, as the discovery of a new and possibly vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant, spooked investors ahead of a short trading session.
Of note, over the past 10 years, the day after Thanksgiving has been relatively quiet. On average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) has opened down around 0.05% and ended the day with a 0.05% gain. Over this period, the DJI’s range on that Friday as a percentage of the prior trading day’s close has averaged only around 0.6%.
As stands, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (.VIX) has popped to a more than two-month high, and CBT e-mini Dow Futures are suggesting the Dow will plunge more than 2% in the early throes of this Black-Friday session. And at more than 3%, the Dow Futures’ range so far today as a percentage of Wednesday’s close is its biggest since early January.
All of this is occurring in the wake of pronounced technical deterioration across the market. Click here: read more
Thus, based on the futures’ action, the DJI’s 50-day moving average (DMA), which ended Wednesday around 35,260, can quickly come under pressure. The Dow has not closed below this intermediate-term moving average since October 13:
The DJI’s 200-DMA ended Wednesday around 34,300. The blue-chip average has not closed below this long-term moving average since July 13, 2020.
A key support line resides around 34,000. Click here: read more
Here is your premarket snapshot:
FOR FRIDAY’S LIVE MARKETS’ POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT – CLICK HERE: read more
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Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
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