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        • Today Bitcoin Price at $6,800 USD
        • Pandemic Is Changing BTC Usage in ‘Unexpected Ways’
        • Macropay on Alternative & local payment methods that are reshaping global e-commerce
        • Bank of America is preparing for a flood of Applications to Small-Business Loan
        • Microsoft might be the best tech stock in this market
        • US Airlines To Work Collectively, Consolidate Flights
        • Bank of America maintaining business continuity and protecting the bottom line
        • US long-term mortgage rates drop
        • Bitcoin Price Bulls have been rejected at $7,000
        • Stock Market: 4 Top Stock Trades for Wednesday: NVDA, AVGO, BAC, IQ
        • Stock Market April 2 – Edge Higher; Oil Surges, Bonds Fall, Dollar Rose
        • Chase bank will raise up to $10 billion
          • Bitcoin Price Simply Surged to $6,500 After Over 10% Weekend Crash
          • Today Bitcoin Price at $7,000: BTC Leaps to Retest $7,000
          • Bank of America agreed to allow 50,000 mortgage customers to defer payments
        • Bitcoin Price Prediction April: Three Key Causes Why BTC May Plunge Beneath $5,000
          • Roll up the Sleeves! American Airlines was down -10.34%
          • Mortgage calculator rates today April 2, 2020
          • Mortgage Calculator Small businesses: SB have ‘a million inquiries’ regarding check help loans
          • Bitcoin Price Today April 1 – Bitcoin Takes Tumble
            • With Bank of America card you can request a payment deferral online
              • Bank of America fields 150,000 installment deferral demands
            • Coronavirus – Travel Insurance no cover cancellations
              • Bank of America said it won’t cut any positions
          • Bitcoin Price Today April 2 – BTC rise to $6,700
          • Mortgage calculator rates today March 31, 2020
          • Bitcoin Price Momentum Sign Reverses, Bull Run Lastly Inbound?
          • Bitcoin Price Recovering After a Sharp Decline
          • Fintech News Airbnb – How hosts are fighting back against Covid-19 fallout
          • Market Stock Boeing – Challenging Times Ahead for Boeing Stock
        • Bank of America U.S. Minimum Hourly Wage Reaches $20
          • Bitcoin Price Bulls – is Forming a Bull Cross After Rallying to $6,500
          • P2P Crowdlending – Average Interest Rate 18%
          • $633 Million BTC Transferred For Simply $0.26 Payment
        • Prime ICO Advertising and marketing Companies
        • Bank of America will provide up to $250 million
        • Bank of America VC: You tend to do the wrong thing at the wrong time
          • Bitcoin Price Jump as Coronavirus Curve Begins to Flatten
            • Bitcoin Price Today April 3
            • Bitcoin Price Is Sometimes Bullish in Q2
            • Bitcoin Price Tumble Beneath $ 6,000
            • BTC Price Today 5 | April, 2020
            • Bitcoin Price and S&P 500 – Here’s how much bitcoin beat the Dow and S&P 500 in the first quarter
              • Today Bitcoin Price at $6,600
                • Bitcoin Price Bulls Reaches: “Live or Die”
                • BTC Price Today | 6 April 2020
          • Bank of America sees big year for Microsoft ahead
            • American Airlines coronavirus downgrade
              • Bitcoin Price Rejected $6,600
              • Bitcoin Price Trace It Will Fall to $ 5 K
              • BTC Price Today April 4
                • Stock Market Today 31 March, 2020
              • US Bank Raises $586M Against COVID-19
                • Bank of America’s Solid Liquidity to Help Covid-19 Crisis
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        • Mortgage rates today, April 3, 2020 plus reviews
          • cmc currency details
            • cmc exchange details
              • Shortcodes
        • Microsoft Vulnerability: Hundreds of Microsoft Servers Contaminated By Crypto-Mining Botnet Since 2018
          • Cision PR Newswire
          • Coupons – Best websites
            • Aeromexico Rewards Chart
            • Get Avios Points Free
        • Today Bitcoin Price at $6,800 USD
        • Pandemic Is Changing BTC Usage in ‘Unexpected Ways’
        • Macropay on Alternative & local payment methods that are reshaping global e-commerce
        • Bank of America is preparing for a flood of Applications to Small-Business Loan
        • Microsoft might be the best tech stock in this market
        • US Airlines To Work Collectively, Consolidate Flights
        • Bank of America maintaining business continuity and protecting the bottom line
        • US long-term mortgage rates drop
        • Bitcoin Price Bulls have been rejected at $7,000
        • Stock Market: 4 Top Stock Trades for Wednesday: NVDA, AVGO, BAC, IQ
        • Stock Market April 2 – Edge Higher; Oil Surges, Bonds Fall, Dollar Rose
        • Chase bank will raise up to $10 billion
          • Bitcoin Price Simply Surged to $6,500 After Over 10% Weekend Crash
          • Today Bitcoin Price at $7,000: BTC Leaps to Retest $7,000
          • Bank of America agreed to allow 50,000 mortgage customers to defer payments
        • Bitcoin Price Prediction April: Three Key Causes Why BTC May Plunge Beneath $5,000
          • Roll up the Sleeves! American Airlines was down -10.34%
          • Mortgage calculator rates today April 2, 2020
          • Mortgage Calculator Small businesses: SB have ‘a million inquiries’ regarding check help loans
          • Bitcoin Price Today April 1 – Bitcoin Takes Tumble
            • With Bank of America card you can request a payment deferral online
              • Bank of America fields 150,000 installment deferral demands
            • Coronavirus – Travel Insurance no cover cancellations
              • Bank of America said it won’t cut any positions
          • Bitcoin Price Today April 2 – BTC rise to $6,700
          • Mortgage calculator rates today March 31, 2020
          • Bitcoin Price Momentum Sign Reverses, Bull Run Lastly Inbound?
          • Bitcoin Price Recovering After a Sharp Decline
          • Fintech News Airbnb – How hosts are fighting back against Covid-19 fallout
          • Market Stock Boeing – Challenging Times Ahead for Boeing Stock
        • Bank of America U.S. Minimum Hourly Wage Reaches $20
          • Bitcoin Price Bulls – is Forming a Bull Cross After Rallying to $6,500
          • P2P Crowdlending – Average Interest Rate 18%
          • $633 Million BTC Transferred For Simply $0.26 Payment
        • Prime ICO Advertising and marketing Companies
        • Bank of America will provide up to $250 million
        • Bank of America VC: You tend to do the wrong thing at the wrong time
          • Bitcoin Price Jump as Coronavirus Curve Begins to Flatten
            • Bitcoin Price Today April 3
            • Bitcoin Price Is Sometimes Bullish in Q2
            • Bitcoin Price Tumble Beneath $ 6,000
            • BTC Price Today 5 | April, 2020
            • Bitcoin Price and S&P 500 – Here’s how much bitcoin beat the Dow and S&P 500 in the first quarter
              • Today Bitcoin Price at $6,600
                • Bitcoin Price Bulls Reaches: “Live or Die”
                • BTC Price Today | 6 April 2020
          • Bank of America sees big year for Microsoft ahead
            • American Airlines coronavirus downgrade
              • Bitcoin Price Rejected $6,600
              • Bitcoin Price Trace It Will Fall to $ 5 K
              • BTC Price Today April 4
                • Stock Market Today 31 March, 2020
              • US Bank Raises $586M Against COVID-19
                • Bank of America’s Solid Liquidity to Help Covid-19 Crisis
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      • Is Discover Visa or Mastercard?
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      • Walmart Money Card – Review
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      • Best Mortgage for Low Down Payment 2020
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    • Mortgage Calculators
      • Mortgage calculator rates today April 1, 2020
      • Mortgage Calculator – Students Benefits
      • Mortgage Calculator – Homeowners and renters Get Payment Relief
      • Calculator for mortgage to millennials
      • Mortgage Calculator Modification – What Is?
      • Mortgage Calculator Canada: Rates Are Rising
      • Mortgage Calculator Home – Is it time to repair your own home mortgage?
      • Mortgage Calculator
      • Mortgage Calculator Rates Today April 3
      • Mortgage Calculator Online
      • Mortgage Calculator Coronavirus: UK mortgage market goes into lockdown
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      • Stimulus Check
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      • Roundpoint Mortgage
      • Midland Mortgage
      • Simple Mortgage Calculator
      • Freedom Mortgage
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      • WTI Oil Prices
      • Brent Crude
      • Crude Oil
    • Agricultural Products
      • Corns
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      • Lean Hogs
    • Precious Metals
      • Platinum
      • Gold
        • Best Place to Buy Gold
        • Price of Gold
        • 5 Ways In order to Buy Gold
        • Gold Price Chart
        • Gold Futures
      • Silver
    • Industrial Metals
      • Copper
  • Insurtech
    • Insurtech “Best of…”
      • Best Life Insurance of 2020
      • The Best Renters Insurance Companies 2020
      • Best Pet Insurance Providers of 2020
      • Best Home Insurance Companies for 2020
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Market Analysis Today: OPEC+ yet to reach 2021 output deal

Mia Turner by Mia Turner
November 30, 2020
in Editors' Picks
0

Home » Market Analysis Today: OPEC+ yet to reach 2021 output deal

Market Analysis Today: OPEC+ yet to reach 2021 output deal

·       OPEC post-meeting risk-rewards still skews lower
·       FX traders roll out their Biden admins playbooks
·       risk wobbles on the month-end flow

Oil has been trading soft after OPEC+ members could not reach an agreement on output in 2021 during the first-round meeting at the weekend.

As things stand, the production cuts the group agreed on earlier this year will end in January.

OPEC+ sources said, however, that talks will resume Monday and the current discussion is around extending the 7.7 mbpd of existing production cuts into “the first few months” of the new year. The sources said it was unlikely the group will be able to agree on deepening the production cuts.

Regardless of the market’s base case, given the post-meeting risk-reward skews lower, oil is struggling to find fresh buyers even more so after Dr Fauci, in no uncertain terms, said: “We may see a surge upon a surge” in two or three weeks over the holiday season.

Investors ‘hitting the pause button’?

Outside of China’s performance on a bullish combination of data and easing, a lot is going on under the hood in global markets into month-end.

It was busy last week despite the US holiday MSCI rebalance driving activity, but the trimming winner rotation has hit the pause button, giving way to some profit-taking.

It seems the market is doing a lot of “hitting the pause button” these days as year-end approaches, and I do not think investors care if it was a November to remember they will continue to defend against the prospects of dreadful Covid-19 infused Christmas Eve.

Taking stock of most recent developments, the anticipated holiday season US Covid-19 case counts explosion notwithstanding, we are likely still in a muddied environment for risk in the coming weeks – Janet Yellen, as Treasury Secretary, would even need Republicans to play ball on stimulus.

Unless the Democrats can win the Georgia, run-off races (betting markets favour Republicans at just under 70% probability), Senator McConnell has given no indication yet that he will budge.

Anyhow risk a seen through US stocks’ lens has so far notably struggled to follow through on its momentum since the positive news from Pfizer and Moderna.

Investor confidence in US equities has been holding up, and that sponsorship remained over the Thanksgiving holiday, but pension selling may finally take over on rebalancing supply into month-end

And as we move through what looks to be a Covid-19 infused December of despair for growth, especially as Georgia run-off becomes more increasingly focused, more investors will be forced to cut and run, especially as everyone will be protecting year-end performance

China rates rally

CNY rates rallied about 7bp across the curve, with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) conducting a surprise CNY200 bn of medium-term lending facility loans today. At the same time, China’s manufacturing PMI for November came in above consensus. Suggesting the surprise policy move has assuaged some investor bond market jitters.

Forex traders rolling out their Biden playbooks

FX traders are rolling out their Biden administration playbooks where Janet Yellen could be the new bearish dollar signal-caller.

The stock rotation roadmap favours cyclical heavy Europe’s relative strength instead of strongly Tech weighted US indices creating real EURO inflow dynamics.

In the meantime, the EURUSD looks set for a sustained break of 1.20,

·       Positioning is no longer extreme longs

·       The virus wave in Europe is likely peaked; the US is still sparing

·       European equity inflows will pick up on rotation from Tech US to cyclical heavy Europe

·       The existential risk premium around the Euro break-up is at its lowest in years

Beyond that, the vaccine rollout has increased confidence in the positive cyclical outlook, which should favour a weaker dollar across the board.

Bottom line, everything that was pointing us towards caution on the Euro in September has now turned.

The street is still talking about how the dollar’s medium-term outlook is about as bearish as one could get. It does not feel like the usual analyst’s lip service either.

The surprisingly high efficacy of vaccines brings forward the timing of the full global recovery and, with it, equity inflows to the rest of the world.

Also, the twin deficits have historically led to dollar declines, and the combination of a Yellen Treasury/inflation-targeting Powell reinforces the dollar downtrend.

Gold’s sell-off continues

It’s been a one-way street since the vaccine news, and gold continues to sell off aggressively amid a combination of liquidation from macros, CTAs, ETFs and a lack of physical demand meeting good-sized buying from longer-term names, but it is well absorbed.

But the ETF overhang offers up a pretty chunky target for Gold ETF to go after, and Gold SPDR length could be the yardstick for gold convictions. Just as Gold ETF attracted a lot of bullish attention when gold was on the way up, the ETF could attract a lot of bearish attention on the way down and could be a significant source of supply.

25% of the Gold SPDR position weight was accumulated between $1700-$1800, so a further $50 or $60 price drop could trigger a massive clear out. Indeed, this would suggest that if the $1750 psychological and technical support area does not hold, the risk of a deeper correction could swell by ETFs’ potential to capitulate.

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Mia Turner

Mia Turner

+10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the currencies markets with vast experience in fundamental, political and technical analysis, educational content, and copywriting. Contact: mia.turner@fintechzoom.com

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