EMS medics with the Houston Fireplace Division transfer a affected person with Covid-19 signs onto a stretcher earlier than transporting him to a hospital on August 14, 2020 in Houston, Texas.John Moore | Getty ImagesIn late June, White Home coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned members of Congress that the U.S. would possibly report greater than 100,000 every day new instances of the virus “if this doesn’t flip round.”However months later, Fauci’s worst fears haven’t come to cross as every day new instances have steadily fallen throughout a lot of the U.S. over the previous month. Whereas testing has declined in current weeks, the variety of new instances is falling quicker than testing charges, indicating that at the very least a few of the drop is actual.Epidemiologists credit score a extra unified well being message within the U.S. that has extra folks following social distancing guidelines. In addition they say that maintaining some companies closed has helped sluggish the outbreak. And President Donald Trump began endorsing masks in late July, bringing the White Home consistent with suggestions from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention after months of resistance.The variety of every day new instances within the U.S. peaked on July 22 at about 70,000 new infections and have steadily fallen to about 42,600 new instances per day, primarily based on a seven-day common, in response to a CNBC evaluation of knowledge compiled by Johns Hopkins College. The % of all exams coming again constructive has additionally steadily fallen as nicely, from a excessive of 8.5% in late July to six.2% this week, in response to Hopkins information. That, together with the 4 weeks of sustained decline and the falling variety of Covid-19 hospitalizations, has epidemiologists feeling extra assured that the U.S. is lastly getting a grip on its coronavirus outbreak.”The present plan — sporting a masks, watching your distance, washing your palms, supplemented by good testing, in response to the state plans, surge testing and excessive technical help by CDC in addition to our craft groups — continues to yield outcomes,” Assistant Secretary for Well being Adm. Brett Giroir advised reporters on a convention name final week.However the nation stays in a fragile spot, epidemiologists from a few of the hardest hit states within the nation, Florida, Texas and Arizona, who spoke with CNBC mentioned. Whereas new instances are falling by at the very least 5% in 31 states, every day new instances are nonetheless rising by at the very least as a lot in additional than a dozen states, primarily based on a seven-day common, in response to Hopkins information.TexasIn Texas, instances are down from a mean of about 10,400 new instances reported on July 22 to a mean of about 5,500 common new instances per day. Whereas irregularities within the state information led some native well being officers and epidemiologists to query the info, Catherine Troisi, an infectious illness epidemiologist at UTHealth Faculty of Public Well being in Houston, mentioned that the state information is “with a grain of salt, trying good.”She added that the Texas Gov. Greg Abbot’s July 2 masks mandate “definitely” helped cut back the unfold in addition to the closing of bars, “as a result of we all know that these had been spreading an infection.” She added, nevertheless, that because the variety of new instances proceed to drop and as society reopens that individuals may expertise “pandemic fatigue” and start to ignore some public well being pointers.”What we’re actually involved about are faculties opening, Labor Day weekend and pandemic fatigue,” she mentioned. “We had been all uninterested in this 5 months in the past. Now we’re actually drained, so if folks see the variety of instances come down, they may suppose it is okay to do issues which might be just a little bit riskier.””I might not be stunned if we see an uptick after Labor Day,” she added.FloridaIn Florida, instances have fallen from a mean of about 11,100 new instances reported on July 22 to about 3,900 common new instances per day this week. Cindy Prins, an epidemiologist on the College of Florida, attributed a lot of the drop to altering habits throughout the state, prompted by information protection and efficient public well being messaging. “I believe it sort of acquired to people who opening up did not imply going again to regular,” she mentioned. “I believe it acquired very a lot within the public eye that we weren’t the place we wanted to be and that we needed to take higher management.”Prins echoed Troisi’s concern that as new instances proceed to fall, folks would possibly get snug and ease up on their dedication to the general public well being steering.”My concern is that we’ll have folks sort of falling away from this notion of menace as our instances decline and that we may wind up with just a little little bit of a curler coaster,” she mentioned.Nevertheless, she added that Florida and most of the different Solar Belt states that had been hit laborious by the virus this summer time, have a bonus over the Northern components of the nation: comparatively hotter climate. Numerous research have proven that the virus spreads extra simply in crowded, in-door, poorly ventilated environments. Officers, together with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, have warned that colder climate may current a brand new problem as eating and gathering open air turns into tougher.ArizonaArizona has reported a mean of about 650 new instances per day over the previous week, down from about 2,750 per day on July 22, in response to Hopkins information. Will Humble, govt director of the Arizona Public Well being Affiliation and former director of the Arizona Division of Well being Providers, attributed the drop in instances to “three core issues.”First, he mentioned, Gov. Doug Ducey “lastly” allowed cities, cities and counties to implement their very own masks mandates in mid-June. Earlier than that mid-June announcement, Ducey had prevented native officers from implementing their very own face masks necessities. “We positively know that was an enormous issue,” Humble mentioned in a telephone interview. He added that the next week, Ducey ordered the closure of bars and nightclubs, which he mentioned was one other main trigger in reversing the course of the outbreak. The third issue that could possibly be driving the drop in new instances, Humble mentioned, is that sufficient of the inhabitants may need been contaminated earlier within the outbreak that “the virus is having a tougher time discovering new hosts.” Significantly hard-hit components of Arizona may be benefiting from some stage of herd immunity, he mentioned, including that not almost sufficient of the inhabitants has been contaminated to really halt the unfold of the virus.”Arizona adopted the Swedish model,” he mentioned. “We threw our palms up and mentioned, ‘alright, let’s get it.’ That is what occurred. And we did it. And lots of people died. And lots of people recovered. And people folks are actually protected.”Humble added that he is nervous concerning the weeks and months forward, each for the nation and for Arizona. He mentioned that below the governor’s reopening plan, bars and nightclubs may reopen as quickly as this week in some communities. However he mentioned he isn’t glad with the state’s plan to make sure compliance with capability restrictions and different necessities. He mentioned that if bars and golf equipment reopen and not using a correct enforcement mechanism, it may result in a serious resurgence and “June 2.0.” “When the bars and nightclubs open with no mitigation measures in place as a result of there was no compliance, who’s going to undergo from that? The mother and father and the youngsters who may have benefited from in-person instruction,” he mentioned, “as a result of it will transfer the metrics up, after which children are going to have to return on-line and in-person instruction will not be an choice anymore.”Hassle within the heartlandDirector of the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention Dr. Robert Redfield warned final week that whereas instances are falling nationally, pushed by the previous scorching spots, there are some worrying indicators in the midst of the nation.”We’re beginning to see a few of the instances now within the pink zone areas are falling, however in case you take a look at these states which might be in what we name the yellow zone, between 5% and 10%, they are not falling, so center America proper now’s getting caught,” he mentioned in an interview with Dr. Howard Bauchner of the Journal of the American Medical Affiliation. “This is the reason it is so necessary for center America to acknowledge the mitigation steps that we talked about, about masks, about social distancing, hand washing, closing bars, being good about crowds.”He mentioned instances usually are not rising considerably within the area, however the truth that instances seem like plateauing could possibly be trigger for concern, particularly because the nation enters the colder months of the yr and seasonal influenza spreads. Redfield has repeatedly warned that the confluence of a serious flu outbreak together with the Covid-19 pandemic may overwhelm hospitals and trigger preventable deaths. He inspired Individuals to get this yr’s flu vaccine as quickly because it’s accessible to mitigate the chance of an awesome flu season.”We needn’t have a 3rd wave within the heartland proper now,” he mentioned. “We have to stop that significantly as we’re coming to the autumn.”— CNBC’s Nate Rattner contributed to this report.