A propaganda poster on stopping the unfold of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus is seen on a wall as a person smokes a cigarette alongside a avenue in Hanoi on April 29, 2020.Manan Vatsyayana | AFP | Getty ImagesVietnam could possibly avert a recession this 12 months because the nation will get again to work and faculty after early coronavirus containment measures, an economist mentioned on Monday.”They aren’t going to be resistant to the slowdown of exterior international demand … However we do not count on them to fall right into a recession or contraction,” mentioned Sian Fenner, lead Asia economist at Oxford Economics.That’s as Vietnam’s early border restrictions and social distancing measures have helped the nation keep away from a big wave of infections.The nation additionally benefited from provide chain diversions as a result of U.S.-China commerce warfare and Fenner mentioned these will proceed to assist the Vietnam’s financial system.Fenner’s feedback to CNBC got here after Hanoi began permitting companies to renew operations from late April.On Monday, thousands and thousands of scholars went again to high school after three months at house, making Vietnam one of many first in Southeast Asia to ease motion restrictions. The nation closed faculties in early February when the primary native circumstances had been detected.Regardless of sharing a land border with China the place the coronavirus first emerged, Communist Vietnam has reported simply 271 circumstances and no deaths in a inhabitants underneath 100 million. It has not reported any new native circumstances in almost three weeks.Vietnam’s success in containing the virus is attributed to decisive measures the nation made early within the outbreak, constructing off its expertise with SARS in 2003. Again then, it was the primary nation to be faraway from a listing of nations with native transmissions, in keeping with the World Well being Group.This time, Vietnam carried out robust controls on journey and individuals who had been probably contaminated very early within the outbreak, “as different Southeast Asian states dithered,” wrote Huong Le Thu, senior analyst on the Australian Strategic Coverage Institute, a suppose tank.The federal government was fast to lock down the nation. It quarantined anybody coming into Vietnam and stopped Chinese language tour teams in addition to direct enterprise to and from China, Le Thu wrote in a put up on the Council on Overseas Relations web site. Vietnam suspended all worldwide flights on March 20 following a brand new wave of infections from European arrivals.Hanoi additionally mobilized intensive contract tracing strategies, Le Thu added.”The truth that Vietnam has a pervasive safety state, and may enlist the armed forces (in addition to giant numbers of civilians) makes it simpler for Hanoi to do this sort of public well being surveillance,” Le Thu wrote.Whereas there could also be questions in regards to the reliability of Vietnam’s figures, Capital Economics mentioned in a current notice that it’s unlikely Hanoi would finish the shutdown if it wasn’t assured that the outbreak was underneath management.”That is clearly excellent news for the financial system,” wrote Gareth Leather-based, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics.Leather-based mentioned, nonetheless, that lifting restrictions is not going to forestall the financial system from contracting sharply this 12 months, as life is unlikely to right away return to pre-crisis ranges. He argued the primary cause Vietnam’s progress will stay weak is the deteriorating international outlook.”Vietnam is likely one of the most trade-dependent economies within the area, with exports equal to over 70% of GDP, and can be hit more durable than most,” Leather-based mentioned.Exports fell 12.1% in March from a 12 months in the past and the worst might be but to come back, he mentioned. Tourism, which generates 4% of GDP, will even stay moribund, he famous.Leather-based predicts Vietnam will put up 0.5% progress in GDP progress this 12 months, far decrease than the 7.0% in 2019. The Worldwide Financial Fund is anticipating Vietnamese GDP progress at 2.7% this 12 months.Vietnam will not be the one nation lifting motion restrictions in Southeast Asia. In the previous few days, neighboring nations Thailand and Malaysia additionally began lifting curbs.Whereas these nations resume financial exercise, Southeast Asia nonetheless has the potential to be the following hotbed for the coronavirus, given considerations about low testing charges in Indonesia and the Philippines.In the meantime, Singapore has reported over 18,000 circumstances — probably the most within the area — because the city-state grapples with an outbreak in its migrant employee group. Most of these circumstances are overseas employees, usually males from different Asian nations working in labor-intensive sectors.