IBM – IBM i Software program And Energy Techniques Upgrades Hold Rolling Ahead
January 18, 2021
Timothy Prickett Morgan
Throughout powerful financial occasions, I’m keen on reminding individuals – and particularly myself as I attempt to stay calm in a recession or regardless of the heck that is we’re coping with now in the course of the coronavirus pandemic – that enterprise, within the mixture, by no means goes to zero. Irrespective of how unhealthy it will get, to date within the fashionable period beginning maybe with the Renaissance and perhaps even longer however actually because the agricultural and industrial revolutions within the 1700s, individuals nonetheless want stuff and so they want individuals to develop or make it.
That doesn’t imply it’s straightforward, nonetheless. Nevertheless it appears just like the IBM i put in base, which is a various group of small, medium, and enormous enterprises that span the globe and each business, has carried out fairly properly all through the coronavirus pandemic. That’s our evaluation after collaborating within the webinar going by way of the leads to the seventh annual IBM i Market Survey carried out by HelpSystems. I listened much more than I talked, which is at all times good, and discovered that it was a bizarre yr in numerous methods.
For each story of an organization beneath excessive duress – maybe within the lodge, on line casino, or leisure industries which were damage badly by the worldwide shutdown – there are others – actually within the healthcare, trucking, logistics, transportation, banking, and retail industries – which have seen their capability wants skyrocket and have needed to speed up sure sorts of initiatives, resembling contactless funds or digital personal networking into techniques, to cope with the workforce and buyer modifications compelled by the pandemic. This was a comforting dialog in some ways, a testomony to the soundness and resiliency of the shoppers who use IBM i platforms, complementing the soundness and resiliency of the platform itself. (I don’t know the way a lot causation and correlation is occurring right here.) For that, I thank my colleagues on the webinar: Tom Huntington, the chief vice chairman of technical options at HelpSystems; Alison Butterill, IBM i product providing supervisor; Ian Jarman, enterprise unit government for Energy Techniques Lab Providers; and Brandon Pederson, worldwide IBM i product advertising supervisor.
What we at all times need to know proper off the bat when the IBM i Market Survey comes out is the place persons are at because it pertains to {hardware} and software program. After which we need to know what their plans are for the approaching yr. On this evaluation, we’re going to deal with the Energy Techniques and IBM i put in base as mirrored within the survey outcomes. And in a follow-on story, we are going to drill down into the plans that corporations have as they seemed forward to 2021.
The IBM i Market Survey was carried out in September 2020, and there have been a complete of 733 responses and 472 full responses on the survey. Builders, system directors, and IT managers proceed to be those taking the survey, however this yr was a bit completely different in that North America – america plus Canada – represented 39 % of these polled, in comparison with someplace round 60 % for years previous. There was way more participation throughout Europe and Central and Latin America, with 24 % and 27 % of respondents coming from these elements of the globe, respectively. This can be a way more balanced distribution and extra intently tracks the precise IBM i put in base. This has most likely prompted some wiggling right here and there within the knowledge, however as you will notice, it doesn’t seem to have prompted any drastic or inconsistent modifications with previous knowledge that was extra centered on prospects in america and Canada.
It might be attention-grabbing to really observe exact prospects annually as a management, to see how particular prospects are reacting and comply with them individually and collectively by way of the years. It’s debatable if this could be extra consultant of the general base. That may be a a lot thinner knowledge set – that is how Gartner and IDC do it for a few of their survey datasets – however a way more priceless one. That mentioned, we predict the dataset that HelpSystems has constructed up with the assistance of IBM and ourselves right here at IT Jungle is efficacious and consultant of what’s going on amongst these prospects who’re lively.
I at all times make that caveat after I speak about this and comparable surveys and their accompanying studies, and you will need to do that once more. I believe the individuals who learn newsletters in regards to the IBM i platform and who take surveys in regards to the IBM i platform are those who know and care in regards to the platform in a approach that numerous prospects don’t. These lively prospects are those on Software program Upkeep, who pay upkeep on their {hardware}, who’re extra lively of their software improvement, and in addition hold their {hardware} and software program present. That is perhaps a fifth of the bottom, and it’s distributed throughout small, medium, and enormous corporations and small, medium, and enormous enterprises – and generally massive corporations have comparatively modest techniques, and vice versa, so do suppose there’s a 1:1 correlation there, both. We can’t essentially infer from this dataset – someplace round 500 prospects statistically representing someplace between 20,000 and 30,000 precise prospects relying on the precise dimension of the OS/400 and IBM i put in base, which is estimated at 120,000 to 150,000 relying on who you ask and if you ask them – that it’s relevant for the opposite four-fifths of the client base. They might be comparable, however I strongly suspect not. I believe many shoppers on this different a part of the client base are on older {hardware}, techniques software program, and software software program however no much less devoted to their platforms – even when a lot of them don’t know they’ve an iSeries, System i, or Energy Techniques working IBM i platform. Many solely know they’ve a machine working an software that their enterprise companion arrange and so they simply rely on it and get on with enterprise.
Having mentioned all that, let’s stroll by way of the put in base, beginning with the Energy Techniques {hardware} after which the IBM i techniques software program. I’ve added within the knowledge from 2015 to get all the seven years of knowledge within the charts. Sorry if they’re arduous to learn. Right here is the distribution of solutions for the query, Which Energy Servers do you personal?
It is very important observe that this knowledge doesn’t ask IBM i retailers what their major server is, however which servers of any given processor technology that they personal and the numbers add as much as greater than 100 % – relying within the yr, it provides as much as someplace round 140 %. That means that many retailers have one machine, however some have a couple of and a few have many, which is per different elements of the report. This knowledge doesn’t present the development of upgrades for generations of single, major machines on the firm, and that’s necessary to recollect.
Having mentioned that, the curve for the 2021 report (which is actually late 2020 knowledge) are fairly per occasions passed by, and that’s refreshing. Power9 machines didn’t get on the radar till early 2018, and completed the yr with 14 % of the machine pool (which was offered within the 2019 report and therefore is beneath the 2019 knowledge within the chart), and a yr later that Power9 share grew by 16 points to 31 % of shoppers (late 2019 knowledge proven within the 2020 report). And regardless of the coronavirus pandemic, it rose by 11 % in late 2020 and Power9 has grown to signify 42 % of the put in {hardware} base within the 2021 report. Should you have a look at the info for Power8 machines, that is completely constant, and all issues being equal, we count on Power9 to interrupt by way of into the center 50 percents by late 2021 and to be reported at that fee within the 2022 report put out by HelpSystems, with Power8 most likely dropping by round 10 % of the bottom in that point. That’s if historic tendencies persist. However historic tendencies may not persist.
If the financial system weakens or if prospects are involved about their IT budgets, we may see an uptick in acquisitions of licensed pre-owned Power8 equipment from IBM World Asset Restoration Providers or different third get together used gear sellers. In truth, gross sales of such equipment may have been occurring in 2020 to maintain the Power8 base as excessive as it’s. It’s arduous to say, however as we’ve been discussing in a sequence of articles that ran final yr, a powerful financial case will be made for getting a used Power8 machine in comparison with a brand new Power9 machine for sure prospects who don’t have to be on the bleeding edge – or can’t be. The case is more durable to make for Power7 iron (or Power7+ iron that’s lumped in with it within the knowledge gathered by HelpSystems), given the age of the machines and the restricted software program releases accessible, however there are, nonetheless, some prospects who can’t transfer forward, normally as a result of they’ve misplaced their software supply code or they’re off upkeep for an extended time period from their third get together software suppliers.
Now, let’s speak about working techniques for a minute. The curves comply with comparable paths, however on this case the query is barely completely different. It asks: What model of IBM i is your major working system degree?
This counts one OS/400, i5/OS, or IBM i launch per website. So the figures add as much as 100 % yearly and the info ignores the truth that prospects have a number of machines which may have a number of releases. We are able to’t know what number of machines have every license. However we will infer that prospects who’ve excessive availability clusters will normally have the identical launch degree on each halves of the cluster. Furthermore, it doesn’t apply an working system distribution to every logical partition, which might give an correct distribution of working techniques throughout the perhaps 1 million to 1.5 million logical partitions I believe is within the put in base of perhaps 250,000 to 300,000 Energy Techniques machines which have IBM i as their major working system. (See final yr’s evaluation of the IBM i Market Survey outcomes for a way I got here to that conclusion.)
There’s a few 10-year cycle for an IBM i launch on this base, which stands to motive on condition that IBM gives assist and prolonged assist for a few decade for every launch. The purpose is, IBM’s intent is essentially met by buyer actions, and that doesn’t essentially should be so, as is evidenced by the IBM i 6.1 and earlier releases which might be nonetheless within the base. IBM i 7.2 is on the way in which out, IBM i 7.three has most likely peaked, and IBM i 7.four is starting its rise. What appears clear is that there’s a lot of IBM i 7.three and IBM i 7.four on Power9 equipment, and possibly numerous IBM i 7.2 and seven.three with a smattering of seven.four on Power8 equipment, however we’re inferring that from the 2 quasi-compatible datasets represented within the charts above.
If we had infinite time and prospects had infinite endurance and ideal data, we’d ask every survey respondent what Energy Techniques machines that they had wherever of their corporations, what number of logical partitions they’ve atop PowerVM, and what number of of every launch of IBM i, AIX, and Linux that they had on these partitions. This might be very exact, and exactly zero individuals would take that survey.
That mentioned, I kinda need to make that survey myself and see if you’ll take it. The place did I put that SurveyMonkey login. . . .
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