When you had been seeking to decide who would win by whether or not Trump held onto his base, you’d have been led astray.
Biden emerged victorious by profitable an excellent bigger share of the Democratic base than Clinton in 2016 and selecting off voters in the course of the voters.
Biden earned 89% of self-described liberals and 94% of self-described Democrats. Clinton took 84% of liberals and 89% of Democrats.
In truth, Biden‘s 94% amongst Democrats was the very best ever for a Democratic nominee for the reason that first exit ballot in 1972. His 89% amongst liberals was tied for the very best.
The place Biden received this election, although, was within the center. His 64% amongst self-described moderates ran 12 points forward of Clinton’s. It was the best on document for any Democrat since exit polls had been applied.
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However Biden‘s win goes deeper than celebration and beliefs. It comes all the way down to training and geography as nicely.
Biden ended up profitable states that Trump took 2016 in each the Nice Lakes and Solar Belt. The best way he did it in each areas was related. He principally constructed on Clinton’s success, moderately than win again a number of 2012 Barack Obama voters. In different phrases, this election wasn’t decided by these voters interviewed in all these diners after Trump received. They virtually uniformly caught with Trump. It was a distinct set of voters that received it for Biden.
Let’s begin within the Nice Lakes.
Biden‘s margin over Trump relative to Clinton elevated by about 120,000 votes in these six counties alone. His margin over Trump in the remainder of the state went up by solely about 50,000, regardless of these counties casting much more of the statewide vote.
The identical held true to an excellent bigger diploma in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. There have been six Pennsylvania counties the place Clinton outperformed Obama. As in Michigan, all of them had a bigger share of faculty educated voters than the state as a complete.
Biden‘s margin over Trump (relative to Clinton) elevated by almost 140,000 votes in these six counties alone. In the remainder of the state, it was really Trump‘s margin that elevated by almost 15,000 over his 2016 efficiency.
With out maximizing Clinton’s overperformance of Obama, Biden would have misplaced his beginning state.
Just about the identical factor occurred in Wisconsin. There have been 4 counties the place Clinton did higher than Obama. As a gaggle, that they had the next share of adults with faculty levels than the nation as a complete.
Biden expanded upon Clinton’s margin by about 65,000 votes in these 4 counties alone. In the remainder of the state, Trump‘s margin over Biden elevated by a little bit greater than 20,000 relative to the place his margin was over Clinton in 2016.
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Lastly, the story within the Solar Belt was related. Biden took Clinton’s successes and put them into overdrive.
The underside line: Biden did not rewrite the map or choose aside Trump‘s base. For probably the most half, he did not win again the areas that was Democratic. Biden‘s profitable map was a brand new one which additional capitalized on Clinton’s positive factors in 2016.