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            • Bitcoin Price Volume Decline with Lowering Volatility
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      • Mortgage rates today, April 3, 2020 plus reviews
        • cmc currency details
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      • Microsoft Vulnerability: Hundreds of Microsoft Servers Contaminated By Crypto-Mining Botnet Since 2018
        • Cision PR Newswire
        • Coupons – Best websites
          • Aeromexico Rewards Chart
          • Get Avios Points Free
      • Today Bitcoin Price at $6,800 USD
      • Pandemic Is Changing BTC Usage in ‘Unexpected Ways’
      • Macropay on Alternative & local payment methods that are reshaping global e-commerce
      • Bank of America is preparing for a flood of Applications to Small-Business Loan
      • Microsoft might be the best tech stock in this market
      • US Airlines To Work Collectively, Consolidate Flights
      • Bank of America maintaining business continuity and protecting the bottom line
      • US long-term mortgage rates drop
      • Bitcoin Price Bulls have been rejected at $7,000
      • Stock Market: 4 Top Stock Trades for Wednesday: NVDA, AVGO, BAC, IQ
      • Stock Market April 2 – Edge Higher; Oil Surges, Bonds Fall, Dollar Rose
      • Chase bank will raise up to $10 billion
        • Bitcoin Price Simply Surged to $6,500 After Over 10% Weekend Crash
        • Today Bitcoin Price at $7,000: BTC Leaps to Retest $7,000
        • Bank of America agreed to allow 50,000 mortgage customers to defer payments
      • Bitcoin Price Prediction April: Three Key Causes Why BTC May Plunge Beneath $5,000
        • Roll up the Sleeves! American Airlines was down -10.34%
        • Mortgage calculator rates today April 2, 2020
        • Mortgage Calculator Small businesses: SB have ‘a million inquiries’ regarding check help loans
        • Bitcoin Price Today April 1 – Bitcoin Takes Tumble
          • With Bank of America card you can request a payment deferral online
            • Bank of America fields 150,000 installment deferral demands
          • Coronavirus – Travel Insurance no cover cancellations
            • Bank of America said it won’t cut any positions
        • Bitcoin Price Today April 2 – BTC rise to $6,700
        • Mortgage calculator rates today March 31, 2020
        • Bitcoin Price Momentum Sign Reverses, Bull Run Lastly Inbound?
        • Bitcoin Price Recovering After a Sharp Decline
        • Fintech News Airbnb – How hosts are fighting back against Covid-19 fallout
        • Market Stock Boeing – Challenging Times Ahead for Boeing Stock
      • Bank of America U.S. Minimum Hourly Wage Reaches $20
        • Bitcoin Price Bulls – is Forming a Bull Cross After Rallying to $6,500
        • P2P Crowdlending – Average Interest Rate 18%
        • $633 Million BTC Transferred For Simply $0.26 Payment
      • Prime ICO Advertising and marketing Companies
      • Bank of America will provide up to $250 million
      • Bank of America VC: You tend to do the wrong thing at the wrong time
        • Bitcoin Price Jump as Coronavirus Curve Begins to Flatten
          • Bitcoin Price Today April 3
          • Bitcoin Price Is Sometimes Bullish in Q2
          • Bitcoin Price Tumble Beneath $ 6,000
          • BTC Price Today 5 | April, 2020
          • Bitcoin Price and S&P 500 – Here’s how much bitcoin beat the Dow and S&P 500 in the first quarter
            • Today Bitcoin Price at $6,600
              • Bitcoin Price Bulls Reaches: “Live or Die”
              • BTC Price Today | 6 April 2020
        • Bank of America sees big year for Microsoft ahead
          • American Airlines coronavirus downgrade
            • Bitcoin Price Rejected $6,600
            • Bitcoin Price Trace It Will Fall to $ 5 K
            • BTC Price Today April 4
              • Stock Market Today 31 March, 2020
            • US Bank Raises $586M Against COVID-19
              • Bank of America’s Solid Liquidity to Help Covid-19 Crisis
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      • Bank of America Stock Falls 3%
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      • Mortgage calculator rates today April 1, 2020
      • Mortgage Calculator – Students Benefits
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      • Calculator for mortgage to millennials
      • Mortgage Calculator Modification – What Is?
      • Mortgage Calculator Canada: Rates Are Rising
      • Mortgage Calculator Home – Is it time to repair your own home mortgage?
      • Mortgage Calculator
      • Mortgage Calculator Rates Today April 3
      • Mortgage Calculator Online
      • Mortgage Calculator Coronavirus: UK mortgage market goes into lockdown
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    • Why Fintech Zoom?
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      • Ask for Proposal
  • Insurtech
    • Insurtech “Best of…”
      • Best Life Insurance of 2020
      • The Best Renters Insurance Companies 2020
      • Best Pet Insurance Providers of 2020
      • Best Home Insurance Companies for 2020
      • Best Car Insurance Quotes Online
      • Best Homeowners Insurance Companies of 2020
    • Insurtech Guides
      • Insurance will not cover coronavirus losses
  • Lifestyle
    • Real Estate
      • Aston Martin Residences
      • The Best Miami Luxury Homes
    • Entertainment
      • Gambling
        • Understanding Different Types Of Online Slots
        • How to Read Odds: NBA Odds
        • Online Casinos
        • Betting
          • US Betting Sites
          • UK Betting Sites
          • Asia Betting Sites
          • The Best Sports Betting Sites
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          • NFL Betting Sites In 2021
      • Gaming
        • GameStop
        • Roblox
          • Is Roblox shutting down? Vs. Robox will be listed NYSE
      • Music
        • Spotify
    • Luxury
      • Most Expensive Watches
      • Best Luxury Clothing Brands
      • Best Luxury SUVs for 2020
      • Porsche
      • Luxury Yatchs
      • Best Luxury Cars
      • Best Luxury Sports Car
      • Best Electric Cars
      • Best Luxury Yoga Retreats
      • The Best Luxury Sports Cars
      • Best Time to Buy a Car
    • Health
      • Sex
      • Covid-19
        • Direct Payments in coronavirus
    • Tech
      • iPhone 12
  • Loans
    • Loans Guides
      • First time loan with no credit
      • Find the Best Private Lender for Personal Loans
      • Emergency personal loans for veterans
      • Fafsa deadline
      • Cash Loans
      • Bad Credit Loans
      • Bad Credit Loans Guaranteed Approval
      • Merrill Lynch Benefits
      • Loans CLO Pain Just Starting With Leveraged loan Rating Cuts
      • Can you get a loan without a bank account?
    • Loans “Best of….”
      • Best place to get an auto loan
      • Best Loan for Students – The Best Private Student Loans of 2020
      • Best Student Loan Refinance of 2020
      • Best Business Loan Lenders of 2020
      • Best Personal Loans of 2020
      • Best Auto Loan Rates for 2020
      • Best payday loans 2020
      • Best Online Loans for Bad Credit 2020
    • Loans Calculators
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      • Loan Calculator
      • VA Loan Calculator
      • FHA loan calculator
      • Auto Loan Calculator
      • Boat Loan Calculator
    • Loans Companies
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      • Rocket Loans
      • Nelnet Student Loans
      • Wells Fargo Student Loans
      • Discover Student Loans
      • AES Student Loans
      • Amigo Loans
      • Likely Loans
      • Tesco Loans
      • Sunny Loans
      • Great Lakes Students Loans
      • Caliber Home Loans
    • Loans Types
      • Payday Loans Bad Credit
      • Online Loans
      • Personal Loan
      • Personal loans for debt consolidation 2020
      • Payday Loans
      • Auto Loan
      • Student Loans Calculator: Pause Scholar mortgage Funds
      • Payday Loans
  • Cryptocurrencies
    • Crypto “Best Of…”
      • Best Crypto Wallets 2020
      • Best Crypto Hardware Wallets of 2020
      • Best Cryptocurrency Exchange 2021
      • Best Crypto to Invest in
      • Greatest Cryptocurrency Tax Software program 2020
      • Best Crypto Trading Bot
      • Best Cryptocurrency Exchanges | April 2020
    • Wallets
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      • Crypto Exchange News
      • Exchange Fee
      • Crypto Exchange Ranking
    • Services – ICO
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      • ICO – Premium Listing
      • ICO Calendar
      • Greatest ICO itemizing websites ICO Score Businesses (2019) | Cryptocurrency ICO Checklist | ICO Calendar
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      • ICO – Connect Investors
      • Airdrops News
    • Blockchain News
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      • Binance Coin
      • COINBASE
    • Top Cryptocurrencies
      • Tether
      • Bitcoin Cash
      • Dogecoin
      • Litecoin
      • Bitcoin
        • Bitcoin Guides
          • Bitcoin ATM near me
          • How to get a lot of bitcoin for free?
          • Bitcoin BTC Price
          • How to Buy Bitcoin
          • Bitcoin
          • Where to buy Bitcoin?
          • Bitcoin Price Guide
          • How to Mine Bitcoin on PC
          • Bitcoin Halving
          • How Long does it Take to Mine 1 Bitcoin?
          • What can you Buy with Bitcoin?
          • Easiest Way to Buy Bitcoin
          • Bitcoin Hoje
          • Bitcoin Halving
          • How to Make Money with Bitcoin
          • Bitcoin Price Prediction
          • Bitcoin Tax
          • Bitcoin Value
          • Bitcoin for Beginners
          • Mercado Bitcoin
        • Bitcoin Calculator
          • BTC to USD Converter
          • Bitcoin Preev
        • Bitcoin “Best of…”
          • 23 Best Place to Buy Bitcoin Online 2020
          • Bitcoin Betting
          • Best Bitcoin Sports Betting Sites 2020
        • Buy Bitcoin
          • Buy Bitcoin With Gift Card
          • Buy Bitcoin with Credit Card
          • Buy Bitcoin Cash
          • Buy Bitcoin Anonymously
          • Buy Bitcoin with credit card
          • Buy Bitcoin with Prepaid Card
          • Buy Bitcoin with Paypal
          • Buy Bitcoin Near Me
          • Buy and Sell Bitcoin
          • Buy Bitcoin: Best Ways to Buy BTC Instantly
          • Buy Bitcoin at Walmart
          • Buy Bitcoin ATM
          • Buy Bitcoin Through Paypal
          • Buy Bitcoin Without ID
        • Bitcoin Price
          • Bitcoin Price USD
          • Bitcoin Price Live
          • Bitcoin Price Live Ticker
          • BTC to USD
          • Price of Bitcoin
          • Price Charts – Bitcoin Price
          • Bitcoin 가격
          • Bitcoin Price Prediction
        • Bitcoin News
          • Current Bitcoin News
            • Bitcoin Price Analysis is now value as a lot as PayPal
            • Bitcoin Price Volume Decline with Lowering Volatility
      • Ethereum
        • Ethereum News
        • Ethereum Worth
      • Ripple
        • Ripple Price
        • Ripple News
        • Ripple
  • News
    • Fintech News Today
    • News
      • Mortgage rates today, April 3, 2020 plus reviews
        • cmc currency details
          • cmc exchange details
            • Shortcodes
      • Microsoft Vulnerability: Hundreds of Microsoft Servers Contaminated By Crypto-Mining Botnet Since 2018
        • Cision PR Newswire
        • Coupons – Best websites
          • Aeromexico Rewards Chart
          • Get Avios Points Free
      • Today Bitcoin Price at $6,800 USD
      • Pandemic Is Changing BTC Usage in ‘Unexpected Ways’
      • Macropay on Alternative & local payment methods that are reshaping global e-commerce
      • Bank of America is preparing for a flood of Applications to Small-Business Loan
      • Microsoft might be the best tech stock in this market
      • US Airlines To Work Collectively, Consolidate Flights
      • Bank of America maintaining business continuity and protecting the bottom line
      • US long-term mortgage rates drop
      • Bitcoin Price Bulls have been rejected at $7,000
      • Stock Market: 4 Top Stock Trades for Wednesday: NVDA, AVGO, BAC, IQ
      • Stock Market April 2 – Edge Higher; Oil Surges, Bonds Fall, Dollar Rose
      • Chase bank will raise up to $10 billion
        • Bitcoin Price Simply Surged to $6,500 After Over 10% Weekend Crash
        • Today Bitcoin Price at $7,000: BTC Leaps to Retest $7,000
        • Bank of America agreed to allow 50,000 mortgage customers to defer payments
      • Bitcoin Price Prediction April: Three Key Causes Why BTC May Plunge Beneath $5,000
        • Roll up the Sleeves! American Airlines was down -10.34%
        • Mortgage calculator rates today April 2, 2020
        • Mortgage Calculator Small businesses: SB have ‘a million inquiries’ regarding check help loans
        • Bitcoin Price Today April 1 – Bitcoin Takes Tumble
          • With Bank of America card you can request a payment deferral online
            • Bank of America fields 150,000 installment deferral demands
          • Coronavirus – Travel Insurance no cover cancellations
            • Bank of America said it won’t cut any positions
        • Bitcoin Price Today April 2 – BTC rise to $6,700
        • Mortgage calculator rates today March 31, 2020
        • Bitcoin Price Momentum Sign Reverses, Bull Run Lastly Inbound?
        • Bitcoin Price Recovering After a Sharp Decline
        • Fintech News Airbnb – How hosts are fighting back against Covid-19 fallout
        • Market Stock Boeing – Challenging Times Ahead for Boeing Stock
      • Bank of America U.S. Minimum Hourly Wage Reaches $20
        • Bitcoin Price Bulls – is Forming a Bull Cross After Rallying to $6,500
        • P2P Crowdlending – Average Interest Rate 18%
        • $633 Million BTC Transferred For Simply $0.26 Payment
      • Prime ICO Advertising and marketing Companies
      • Bank of America will provide up to $250 million
      • Bank of America VC: You tend to do the wrong thing at the wrong time
        • Bitcoin Price Jump as Coronavirus Curve Begins to Flatten
          • Bitcoin Price Today April 3
          • Bitcoin Price Is Sometimes Bullish in Q2
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Mortgage Rates Today – When Will The Mortgage Market Actually Care About Rising Rates?

Jung Min-seo by Jung Min-seo
February 12, 2021
in Mortgage Rates Today
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Home » Mortgage Rates Today – When Will The Mortgage Market Actually Care About Rising Rates?

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Mortgage Rates Today – When Will The Mortgage Market Actually Care About Rising Rates?

There’s an obvious trend toward higher rates as far as Treasury yields are concerned.  This goes all the way back to August.  

Treasury yields and mortgage rates historically correlate quite well. But mortgage rates have almost completely ignored that correlation recently.  In fact, most of the 2nd half of 2020 saw mortgage rates fall while Treasury yields continued higher.

20210211 nl2.png

The chart above doesn’t tell the whole story because it uses a separate y-axis for each line. Here’s the same time frame with mortgage rates and 10yr yields on the same axis:

20210211 nl7.png

That still doesn’t tell us much although we can certainly see different patterns.  Here’s another look at the same two rates on the same axis, but this time we’re charting the CHANGE since Jan 1, 2020.  

20210211 nl8.png

This one probably tells the story better than the rest.  Mortgage rates simply weren’t able to drop as quickly as Treasury yields at the beginning of the pandemic and have been closing the gap ever since.  As of late 2020, they finally got on the same page again. 

With that being the case, are mortgage rates now at the whim of the broader bond market?  Yes and no.  The reasons are fairly technical, so they’ll be included as a “nerdy addendum” at the end of the newsletter.  The quick version is that mortgage rates have been and will continue to be less and less likely to defy rising rate trends in the broader bond market.

So should we expect rising rate trends to continue?  Here too, the answer is yes and no, but it’s easier to make a case for “yes.”  Bonds care deeply about the course of the pandemic and the economic recovery.  Covid case counts alone can explain a lot of the momentum in the past year.

20210211 nl6.png

* This was a complicated time frame for bonds.  Markets were already well aware that case counts would be spiking in the winter.  If cases had only risen modestly at the end of the year, bond yields might have actually continued to rise.  But the bigger spike in cases instead helped bonds avoid making new highs for a time.   On a separate note, bond yields were pushed higher in early November due to the presidential election.

** Here too, falling case counts were largely assumed, but they certainly aren’t helping bonds.  The rate spike in early January had more to do with politics (as the GA senate election gave unified control to democrats, thus increasingly Treasury issuance expectations.  Higher issuance = higher bond yields/rates).

But as is always the case with financial markets, if rates were 100% certainly going to be higher, they already would be!

The jury is still out on how the pandemic reshapes the economy.  Will the 10 million missing jobs return in any significant way?  Will inflation actually move above 2% any time soon?  Until the labor market improves and inflation rises, the Federal Reserve will be doing a lot to keep rates much lower than they otherwise would be.  The biggest shocks to the mortgage market are reserved for the day when the Fed begins to withdraw support.

Fortunately, we should be able to see that coming to some extent based on data we know the Fed cares about.  This week’s example was the Consumer price Index (CPI)–one of the two big inflation reports that come out each month. 

The Fed’s inflation framework suggests the “Core CPI” should be 2% or higher on some reasonably sustained basis.  It was 1.6 last month and expected to drop to 1.5 this month.  Instead, it dropped to 1.4!  Translation: inflation is moving the wrong direction if it’s trying to scare mortgage rates.  Granted, this is just one report and things can change in coming months, but it speaks to a relatively lower sense of urgency until further notice.

Next week brings a market closure on Monday for Presidents Day.  After that, there are several relevant economic reports on tap, with the headliner being Retail Sales on Wednesday.  If the data is stronger than forecast, it implies upward pressure on rates.  Any significant progress on stimulus legislation could add to that pressure.

Now For The Nerdy Addendum!

So why have mortgage rates been able to outperform Treasuries so much, and why might those good times be running out?  

1) Mortgage bonds vs Treasuries. Although mortgage-backed bonds (what mortgage rates are actually based on) tend to correlate very well with Treasuries, that relationship has been more volatile than ever before since Covid.  Mortgage bonds have done much better than Treasuries since September.  When that happens, lenders have more pricing power (i.e. they have room to drop rates or keep them low, even if Treasury yields don’t agree).

Yes, this has helped mortgages outperform, but have we seen the limit of this outperformance?  Charting the spread between mortgage bond yields and Treasuries provides answers.  Outperformance (i.e. the lower the blue line goes) is at record levels.  It will have a hard time moving much lower.

20210211 nl9.png

2) Treasury-specific concerns.  This is more of a sub-component of the previous bullet point because anything that’s bad for Treasuries specifically will also be good for the spread between mortgage bonds and Treasuries.  In other words, “some stuff” is pushing Treasury yields higher, but not mortgage bond yields.  Said “stuff” mostly has to do with large amounts of Treasury bond issuance.

3) Mortgage Lender Margins.  This is arguably the biggest deal here, and perhaps the easiest to understand.  Mortgage lenders simply couldn’t drop rates as fast as Treasuries OR mortgage bonds suggested earlier in 2020.  They would have been overwhelmed, and the rapid refinances of just-issued bonds would have done serious damage to the mortgage market. 

The following chart measures the gap between mortgage rates and mortgage bonds.  The higher it is, the more cushion lenders have.  That cushion can be used to absorb bond market movement that would normally imply higher rates, or it can be used to bring rates lower when the bond market is flat.  Either way, it’s starting to get thin.

Granted, it might look like there is a lot of cushion remaining, but as we’ve discussed time and again, there is a “new normal” that will be higher than the previously normal range.  The fact that we’ve bounced a few times at 1.35 means we might be looking at the new normal. It’s too soon to tell if this will be a new “floor” for the range or just a temporary road block.  

20210211 nl5.png

Super-condensed translation:

  • The bonds that dictate mortgage rates have done amazingly well compared to Treasury yields
  • Mortgage rates have done amazingly well compared to mortgage bonds (after an initial blow-out at the start of the pandemic). 
  • Both factors made low mortgages almost invincible by the end of 2020
  • But both factors are showing signs of fatigue.

 

Mortgage Rates Today – When Will The Mortgage Market Actually Care About Rising Rates?

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