More than 80% of the workforce for those five industries are employed by businesses with a staff of at least 100 employees, which means they’ll be required to get a vaccine or a weekly Covid-19 test. That’s according to 2018 data on US businesses, the most recent data released by the Census Bureau in May.
In four states and the District of Columbia, the mandate applies to at least 70% of employees.
Tennessee is the state with the highest percentage of both employees and businesses included in the mandate. Nearly 30% of its businesses and 71% of all employees would be subject to the new vaccine requirements.
A recent Goldman Sachs analysis warns of a short-term risk as some employees are expected to quit rather than agree to the new requirements. However, it said the Biden administration’s option for regular testing instead of the vaccine will likely mitigate some of the turnover. The analysis also predicts vaccine-refusing employees “should be able to” find new jobs among small companies not included in the vaccine requirements.
Companies in the health care and retail sectors will see the most employees covered by the new mandate, around 26 million between the two.
Health care workers represent the largest group affected by the new rules in both Tennessee and Arizona — the state with the second-highest percentage of its workers affected by the new rules after Tennessee.
Of the 80 million employees covered under the vaccine mandate, roughly 38 million workers in sectors with predominantly people-facing roles — health care, retail, hospitality, education, and arts and entertainment — will eventually be vaccinated or routinely tested.