It’s been a sad week for Tutor Perini Corporation (NYSE:TPC), who’ve watched their investment drop 17% to US$14.70 in the week since the company reported its annual result. The result was positive overall – although revenues of US$5.3b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Tutor Perini surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.12 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Tutor Perini
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Tutor Perini, is for revenues of US$5.14b in 2021, which would reflect a measurable 3.3% reduction in Tutor Perini’s sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 8.8% to US$1.95 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.22 in 2021. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their sales forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$19.33 price target, showing that the analysts don’t think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Tutor Perini, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$14.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Tutor Perini shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for a 3.3% decline in revenue next year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.7% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to decline, unfortunately Tutor Perini is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Tutor Perini. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Tutor Perini going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example – Tutor Perini has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.
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