BB Stock – Texas Rangers at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction
The Texas Rangers (18-22) tangle with the Houston Astros (22-17) Saturday in Game 3 of their four-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rangers vs. Astros with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston won the first two games of this series: 4-3 in 11 innings Thursday and 10-4 Friday.
Season series: Astros 2-0.
RHP Dane Dunning is on the mound for the Rangers. Dunning is 2-2 with a 3.78 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 7 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 10-2, in 5 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 10 K against the Seattle Mariners Sunday.
- Career vs. the Astros: No appearances.
RHP Luis Garcia gets the nod for the Astros. Garcia is 0-3 with a 3.60 ERA (30 IP, 12 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 across 5 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in 5 1/3 IP with 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Houston’s 5-4 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Monday.
- Career vs. the Rangers: 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA (1 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 5.4 K/9 in 2 relief appearances.
- Statcast grades Garcia in the 83rd percentile in chase rate and exit velocity, 75th percentile in K% and 72nd percentile in whiff%.
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Rangers at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rangers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Astros -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rangers +1.5 (-130) | Astros -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Rangers 4, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the RANGERS (+155) for a half unit because Texas has an edge in starting pitching and bullpen matchups.
Dunning has a solid K% and BB% with an unconventional pitch arsenal that includes a sinker (57% usage), slider (23%), changeup (13%) and cutter (5%).
He’s a starter I’m buying stock on and Dunning is aided by this being his first appearance against this star-studded Astros lineup.
Also, Texas’s bullpen is fifth in both xFIP and SIERA, seventh in K-BB% and eighth in left-on-base percentage (all better marks than Houston’s bullpen).
Finally, I feel good enough about backing Texas’s run line that I’m willing to sprinkle on the RANGERS (+155), but if it’s either, definitely go with Texas plus 1.5 runs.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the RANGERS +1.5 (-130) for 1 unit for all the aforementioned reasons and because Texas’s run line is the better play.
Also, Texas is 13-7 on the run line this season as a road dog and the Astros are 22-27 RL in Houston since the beginning of last season.
In fairness to Houston, Garcia has a live arm with pretty good stuff and the Astros relievers are 10th in both xFIP and SIERA and 11th in K-BB%. So, I think we’ll have a low-scoring affair.
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for a half unit.
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