Novavax Stock- Novavax (NVAX) to Report Q1 Earnings: What’s in the Cards?
We expect investors to focus on Novavax, Inc.’s NVAX update on the progress of its coronavirus vaccine candidate NVX-CoV2373 when it reports first-quarter 2021 earnings results on May 10, after market close.
The company’s surprise record has been mixed so far, as its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and lagged the same on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 62.92%. In the last-reported quarter, Novavax witnessed a negative earnings surprise of 76.47%.
Shares of Novavax have skyrocketed 131.1% so far this year compared with the industry’s increase of 0.5%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Key Factors to Note
Novavax currently does not have any approved product in its portfolio. As a result, the company is yet to generate revenues from its product sales.
In the last-reported quarter, revenues increased significantly year over year owing to the funding from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and other sources in relation to the development of NVX-CoV2373 – a trend most likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
In March 2021, Novavax announced final data from a pivotal phase III study which evaluated NVX-CoV2373 in the United Kingdom. Data from the same showed that the vaccine was 96.4% effective against mild, moderate and severe disease caused by the original COVID-19 strain in the United Kingdom.
The company also announced results from the complete analysis of its phase IIb study in South Africa. In the region marked by a vast majority of strains that are B1.351 escape variants, the vaccine candidate delivered 55.4% efficiency among the HIV-negative study participants.
Novavax is planning to submit the data for authorization to several regulatory agencies worldwide. We expect more updates on the progress of the COVID-19 vaccine candidate at the upcoming investors call.
Please note that Novavax is conducting the phase III PREVENT-19 study, which is evaluating the efficacy, safety and immunogenicity of NVX-CoV2373 in the United States and Mexico.
Development activities related to NVX-CoV2373 are likely to have escalated operating expenses in the to-be-reported quarter.
Apart from this, Novavax is developing its nanoparticle seasonal influenza vaccine candidate, NanoFlu, for patients aged 65 years and above. The company has successfully completed a phase III study on the same. The study met all eight primary endpoints. NanoFlu was found non-inferior to Sanofi’s SNY influenza vaccine, Fluzone.
Novavax plans to file a biologics license application (“BLA”) to the FDA shortly, seeking an accelerated approval for NanoFlu. The activities related to filing a BLA might have shot up the company’s operating expenses. An update on the regulatory timeline of the vaccine is expected during the upcoming earnings call.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novavax this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Novavax’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of $2.65 per share.
Zacks Rank: Novavax currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Novavax, Inc. price and Consensus
Novavax, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Novavax, Inc. Quote
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of an earnings beat.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. AXSM with an Earnings ESP of +23.83% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The company is scheduled to report earnings on May 10.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.