A girl walks within the rain outdoors the New York Stock Alternate (NYSE) within the monetary district of decrease Manhattan in the course of the outbreak of the coronavirus illness (COVID-19) in New York, April 13, 2020.Andrew Kelly | ReutersInvestors are making the most important wager within the futures market since 2011 that the stock market goes to dump.There’s been a web brief place in E-mini S&P 500 futures constructing since April.Some strategists consider when quite a lot of buyers take the identical place, there is a herd mentality at work and buyers are literally sending a contrarian sign. On this case, that will be optimistic for stock market beneficial properties. However Peter Boockvar, chief funding strategist at Bleakley International Advisors, disagrees that stock futures buyers are essentially representing a contrarian name.In accordance with the CFTC, as of final week, there was a web brief place of 303,000 futures contracts for the S&P E-minis held by the non business merchants, an funding group seen as speculators. In early March, the identical buyers held a web optimistic place, at a excessive of about 55,000 contracts.Boockvar mentioned about twice as many futures contracts have been now brief as lengthy, for the week ending final Tuesday. He factors to circumstances the place the shorts have been proper, like in September, 2007 once they have been at a file excessive forward of the market peak in October.He mentioned there have been file excessive longs in March, 2009, one other commerce that turned out to be proper because the lengthy bull market started that month.”They have been proper. I am skeptical to take a look at this as a contrarian indicator. I will argue that generally the shorts are proper,” he mentioned. Boockvar mentioned he does not truly know what to make of the positioning. It is extra minimize and dry within the case of commodities futures, like corn or oil, the place the producer is on the opposite facet of the commerce.”CFTC information must be checked out as a contrarian indicator, however I do not consider that is with the S&P 500 futures. You could possibly have folks lengthy stocks and hedging with futures. That does not imply they’re web brief,” he mentioned.