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Walmart has been the United States’ largest retailer since 1990, but its reign might only last a few more years.
Amazon’s gross merchandise value revenue totaled $327 billion in its fiscal 2020, and Ascential forecasts it to nearly double over the next four years, hitting $631.6 billion in 2025 at a compound annual growth rate of 14%. That rate far outpaces Walmart’s 3.9% predicted CAGR over the same period; Ascential expects Walmart to take in $523.3 billion in 2025 revenue.
The report noted that Amazon’s expected growth is powered by its online-only model. Ascential said e-commerce is the only sales channel forecasted to grow its U.S. market share through 2025 and that it would continue to take market share from major grocers and brick-and-mortar retailers.
The report also forecasts total U.S. e-commerce sales to surge 41% over the next four years, compared to 2020 levels, to $1.2 trillion in 2025. And that’s after an exceptional 2020 in which consumers relied heavily on e-commerce amid the COVID-19 pandemic — e-commerce sales jumped 30% last year compared to 2019.
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