The upcoming US presidential election in 2024 has become a focal point for investors and market analysts worldwide. This pivotal event has the potential to shape economic policies, regulatory frameworks, and investment landscapes for years to come. According to FintechZoom.com, the outcome of the US presidential election could have a significant impact on stock market performance and various sectors of the economy.
FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis highlights several key areas that may experience substantial changes based on the election results. These include cryptocurrency regulation, fiscal policies, and international trade relations. The analysis also examines how different sectors might respond to potential policy shifts, and explores the implications for global markets. As FintechZoom.com points out, understanding these factors is crucial for investors looking to navigate the uncertainties surrounding the 2024 US presidential race and its effects on financial markets.
Cryptocurrency Regulation and Innovation
The upcoming US presidential election has brought cryptocurrency regulation to the forefront of political discourse. As candidates vie for support from the crypto community, their stances on digital assets have become a crucial factor in shaping voter preferences and campaign strategies.
Harris’ evolving stance on digital assets
Vice President Kamala Harris has recently signaled a shift towards a more supportive position on cryptocurrency. At a fundraiser in New York City, Harris pledged to “encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors” 1. This marks her first public acknowledgment of the sector as a presidential candidate, indicating a potential departure from the current administration’s approach.
Harris’ campaign has been working to deepen its understanding of the crypto industry ahead of the 2024 elections. Her evolving stance reflects the growing importance of digital assets in the national economy and the need for clear regulatory frameworks. According to FintechZoom.com, Harris’ approach aims to balance innovation with consumer protection, a crucial aspect of US election analysis in the crypto sphere.
Trump’s pro-crypto positioning
Former President Donald Trump has repositioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate, despite his previous skepticism. At a major cryptocurrency conference in Nashville, Trump declared his intention to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and the Bitcoin “superpower of the world” 2. FintechZoom.com reports that Trump’s campaign now accepts Bitcoin donations, further solidifying his pro-crypto stance.
Trump’s crypto policy proposals, as analyzed by FintechZoom.com, include creating a government stockpile of Bitcoin and establishing a crypto advisory council. He has also voiced opposition to the Federal Reserve creating its own digital currency, aligning with many crypto enthusiasts’ concerns about centralized control.
Potential legislative changes under each administration
The outcome of the US presidential election could significantly impact the future of crypto regulation. FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis suggests that a Harris administration might focus on creating a balanced regulatory environment that fosters innovation while protecting investors. This could involve clarifying the roles of agencies like the SEC and CFTC in overseeing digital assets.
On the other hand, a Trump administration might pursue more aggressive pro-crypto policies. FintechZoom.com notes that Trump has promised to halt the current regulatory crackdown and implement policies encouraging technological advancement in the crypto space.
Regardless of the election outcome, the crypto industry is likely to see increased political attention and potential legislative action. FintechZoom.com’s analysis indicates that both candidates recognize the growing importance of digital assets in shaping the future of the U.S. economy and its position in the global digital assets landscape.
Fiscal Policy and Market Expectations
The upcoming US presidential election has brought fiscal policy and its potential impact on markets to the forefront of economic discussions. According to FintechZoom.com, the contrasting approaches of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could significantly influence government debt, inflation, and overall market performance.
Harris’ economic priorities
Vice President Harris has proposed a range of economic policies aimed at supporting low and middle-income families while increasing taxes on corporations and high-income earners. FintechZoom.com reports that her plan includes expanding the child tax credit, increasing funding for children and families, and lowering healthcare and housing costs. Harris has pledged to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% and increase taxes on households earning more than $400,000 per year 3.
However, these proposals come with fiscal implications. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Harris’ plan could increase the national debt by $3.50 trillion through 2035 4. This projection has raised concerns among some economists about the long-term impact on government finances and market stability.
Trump’s tax and spending proposals
Former President Trump’s fiscal plans, as analyzed by FintechZoom.com, focus on tax cuts and increased tariffs. His proposals include making the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, reducing the corporate tax rate to 20% for companies manufacturing in the U.S., and implementing a 10-20% across-the-board tariff 3. Trump has also suggested eliminating income taxes on tips for individuals making less than $75,000 per year.
These policies, while potentially stimulating short-term economic growth, could have significant implications for the national debt. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump’s plan could increase the debt by $7.50 trillion through 2035 4. This substantial increase in government borrowing could impact interest rates and market expectations.
Projected impacts on government debt and inflation
FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis suggests that both candidates’ fiscal policies could lead to increased government debt and potentially higher inflation. Under Harris’ plan, the national debt is projected to reach 133% of GDP by 2035, while under Trump’s plan, it could rise to 142% of GDP 4.
The impact on inflation remains a point of contention. A survey of economists cited by FintechZoom.com found that 70% believed Harris would be better at managing inflation compared to Trump 5. However, Trump’s proposed tariffs could potentially increase inflation by almost 1 percentage point, according to some economic analyzes 5.
As the election approaches, FintechZoom.com notes that markets will be closely watching how these fiscal policies evolve and their potential impacts on economic growth, inflation, and overall market performance. The outcome of the US presidential election could have far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy and, by extension, the financial markets.
Key Sectors Poised for Volatility
As the US presidential election approaches, certain sectors of the economy are expected to experience increased volatility due to potential policy shifts. FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis highlights several key areas that may see significant changes based on the election outcome.
Healthcare and pharmaceutical industries
The healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors are likely to be at the forefront of policy debates during the 2024 election. According to FintechZoom.com, both candidates have expressed intentions to address high drug prices, which could impact pharmaceutical stocks. Vice President Harris has proposed expanding the Inflation Reduction Act to negotiate prices for more drugs, potentially affecting the industry’s profitability 6. Former President Trump, on the other hand, has suggested implementing a “most favored nations” approach, linking Medicare drug prices to an international pricing index 6.
The pharmaceutical industry has already faced challenges from the Inflation Reduction Act, with some companies altering their research and development strategies. FintechZoom.com reports that Roche’s Genentech division considered delaying approval for an ovarian cancer drug, while Alnylam Pharmaceuticals scrapped plans to test a drug for a rare condition due to the act’s implications 6.
Energy and environmental policies
The energy sector is another area poised for volatility as the election approaches. FintechZoom.com’s analysis indicates that the candidates have contrasting views on energy and environmental policies. Vice President Harris supports accelerating renewable energy projects and continuing the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides substantial investments in clean energy 7. This stance could potentially boost companies involved in solar, wind, and other renewable energy technologies.
In contrast, former President Trump has pledged to expand fossil fuel production and roll back environmental regulations 7. FintechZoom.com notes that this approach could benefit traditional energy companies but may face challenges from state-level initiatives and global market trends favoring cleaner energy sources.
Technology and big tech regulation
The technology sector, particularly big tech companies, is likely to experience volatility as the election nears. FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis suggests that both candidates have expressed concerns about the power of large technology firms, but their approaches to regulation differ.
Vice President Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s focus on antitrust enforcement and data protection 8. This could potentially lead to increased scrutiny of mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector. FintechZoom.com reports that Harris may prioritize federal regulations in areas like AI governance and privacy, reflecting her longstanding advocacy for consumer privacy 8.
Former President Trump, while critical of big tech companies, is likely to take a more lenient approach to mergers and acquisitions 8. However, he has emphasized his intent to prioritize freedom of speech on online platforms, which could lead to changes in content moderation policies for social media companies.
As the election draws closer, FintechZoom.com’s analysis suggests that investors should closely monitor these sectors for potential opportunities and risks associated with the varying policy proposals of the candidates.
International Trade Relations and Global Markets
US-China trade dynamics
The upcoming US presidential election has brought international trade relations, particularly with China, to the forefront of economic discussions. According to FintechZoom.com, the outcome of the election could significantly impact global markets and reshape trade dynamics.
The Trump administration’s protectionist approach led to a significant shift in US-China trade relations. Since June 2018, China’s share of US imports has decreased from 22% to 14%, with the decline offset by increased imports from Mexico, the EU, and Emerging Asia 9. This trend is expected to continue under the next administration, regardless of who wins the election.
Both candidates, Trump and Harris, have expressed protectionist leanings, but their approaches differ. Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a universal tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports to the US 9. This aggressive stance could potentially eliminate US imports from China and inflict significant collateral damage on the US economy 10.
On the other hand, Harris has emphasized a “de-risking” approach rather than decoupling from China 11. She aims to position the US as a leader in setting global trade rules while ensuring fair competition. FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis suggests that Harris would likely continue the Biden administration’s focus on increasing trade with friendly countries, known as “nearshoring” or “friendshoring” 9.
NAFTA and relations with Mexico and Canada
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA in 2020, remains a crucial aspect of North American trade relations. FintechZoom.com reports that the agreement is set for review in 2026, making it a key focus for the next administration 12.
Mexico has become the United States’ top goods trading partner in 2023, with total two-way goods trade reaching USD 807.00 billion 13. Canada follows closely behind with USD 782.00 billion in trade 13. The USMCA has played a significant role in supporting mutually beneficial trade and creating job opportunities across North America.
Implications for emerging markets
FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis indicates that emerging markets (EMs) are bracing for the election result, which will have implications for global growth, trade, and politics. The impact on EMs can be analyzed through four broad channels: the path for the US economy and monetary policy, changes to global trade, the impact on migration to the US, and the administration’s approach to international relations 14.
A Harris presidency is expected to offer broad continuity from the Biden administration, while a second Trump term could mean significant domestic and foreign policy uncertainty 14. FintechZoom.com notes that US-China decoupling may benefit some EMs, as they could potentially fill the gap left by reduced Chinese imports to the US.
However, the risk remains high for EMs with large trade surpluses, especially those that could be accused of re-exporting Chinese goods to circumvent tariffs 14. FintechZoom.com’s analysis suggests that while a market-friendly Trump presidency could be good for EMs in terms of global economic growth, a second trade war would be much harder to navigate, creating a wide range of winners and losers across emerging markets 14.
Market Expert Comments
Peter Esho, economist and founder at Esho Capital, told to FintechZoom.com:
With just over a week before US elections, we suspect markets are starting to price in a Trump win. We say this for three reasons. First, the US 10-year bond yield is now well into the 4% range, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent cuts.
The second point is gold making new highs and now flirting with the sub $3000 per ounce levels after forming a strong base in the US$2500-2600 range. Gold’s move higher again signals inflation expectations. The third point is Bitcoin, also an inflation gauge, making new highs and consolidating gains.
Bond yields, Gold and Bitcoin are all signalling an inflation bias despite no official change of course from the US Federal Reserve. The market isn’t always right and could be completely wrong, but at the moment, we’re reading this as a signal that Trump’s chances and a favourable composition of the house and senate are being priced into the markets.
Bottom line: The market is pricing in higher growth and in turn, more inflation, as Trump’s growth policies are inflationary — particularly tax cuts and tariffs. His energy policy could limit oil prices, which could offset, but there is a lag effect for this to manifest.
The big wildcard will be how China responds, the most likely will be to devalue its currency. Overall, Trump’s policies could be positive for commodities and will be a boom for Australia’s key exports, driving up the Australian dollar and our trade position.
Conclusion
The 2024 US presidential election has the potential to have a significant impact on financial markets and economic policies. According to FintechZoom.com, key areas likely to be affected include cryptocurrency regulation, fiscal policies, and international trade relations. FintechZoom.com’s us election analysis highlights how different sectors might respond to potential policy shifts, emphasizing the importance for investors to understand these factors to navigate the uncertainties surrounding the election and its effects on financial markets.
As the election approaches, FintechZoom.com suggests that investors should keep a close eye on developments in healthcare, energy, and technology sectors, as well as changes in US-China trade dynamics. FintechZoom.com’s analysis indicates that regardless of the outcome, the election will have far-reaching consequences for fiscal policy and, by extension, the financial markets. To stay informed and make well-informed decisions, investors can turn to FintechZoom.com for ongoing us election analysis and market insights.
References
[1] – https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/26/crypto-kamala-harris-bitcoin/[2] – https://www.bankrate.com/investing/where-trump-and-harris-stand-on-crypto/
[3] – https://res.americancentury.com/docs/2024-presidential-election-policy-comparison-table.pdf
[4] – https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans
[5] – https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy_Book_Economic-Opportunity.pdf
[6] – https://www.investors.com/research/industry-snapshot/drug-prices-2024-election-pharmaceutical-stocks-ira/
[7] – https://www.eco-business.com/news/trump-harris-debate-where-do-they-stand-on-the-energy-transition/
[8] – https://trilligent.com/2024-us-election-series-tech-insights-with-trilligent/
[9] – https://group.atradius.com/economic-research/us-elections-trade-policy-october-2024.html
[10] – https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/united-states-china/010-next-us-administration-and-china-policy
[11] – https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-china-2024/
[12] – https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/54206/2024-08-12-_024-pre-election-analysis-us-canada-cross-border
[13] – https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-mexico/
[14] – https://www.abrdn.com/en-us/investor/insights-and-research/how-will-the-presidential-election-result-affect-emerging-markets
